Big Six Banks' Personal Loan NPL Ratios Rise in H1 2026; BoCom Hits 2.02%
In the first half of 2026, all six major state-owned banks reported higher non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for personal loans versus end-2025, with Bank of Communications posting the largest increase to 2.02%. ICBC's ratio rose 0.19 percentage points to 1.77%, while the other four banks ranged between 1.31% and 1.58%, with increases of 0.05 to 0.27 percentage points.
During the first half of 2026, most listed banks saw their personal loan NPL ratios climb, with some increasing impairment provisions, leading to divergent earnings performance. As of end-June, all six major state-owned banks had higher personal loan NPL ratios than at end-2025.
Bank of Communications recorded the steepest rise among the six, with its personal loan NPL ratio up 0.44 percentage points to 2.02%. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's ratio stood at 1.77%, up 0.19 percentage points. The remaining four major banks reported ratios between 1.31% and 1.58%, with increases ranging from 0.05 to 0.27 percentage points.
Why this event matters
The event has a measured impact on 2 industrys. The strongest current signal is negative for State-owned Banks, with intensity 60/100 and 90% confidence over a medium term horizon.
State-owned Banks
- Direction
- negative
- Intensity
- 60
- Confidence
- 90%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Commercial Banks
- Direction
- negative
- Intensity
- 50
- Confidence
- 80%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Impact figures are analytical estimates that combine direction, intensity, confidence and event importance. They are not investment advice.