China Trading Desk Cuts 2026 Outbound Tourism Forecast Nearly 3% to 179 Million Trips and US$258 Billion
China Trading Desk has downgraded its forecast for mainland Chinese outbound tourism in 2026 by nearly 3% from its June projection, now expecting about 179 million trips and US$258 billion in destination spending. The revised figures still exceed pre-pandemic levels, as 2019 saw 175 million trips and US$255 billion spending. A weak property market and ongoing Middle East conflict are dampening consumer demand for non-essential travel, slowing growth despite the record-high outlook.
Market research firm China Trading Desk has downgraded its 2026 forecast for outbound trips by mainland Chinese tourists to about 179 million, with destination spending of approximately US$258 billion. Although these numbers remain a record, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, they are down nearly 3% from the estimates released in June.
A sluggish property market is weighing on the domestic economy, prompting consumers to be more cautious about discretionary spending, while disruptions from the Middle East conflict are dampening long-haul travel. By comparison, mainland Chinese tourists made about 175 million outbound trips in 2019, spending around US$255 billion. The revised forecast remains above the 2019 level, but growth has slowed markedly.
Why this event matters
The event has a measured impact on 1 industry. The strongest current signal is negative for Tourism, with intensity 40/100 and 70% confidence over a short term horizon.
Impact figures are analytical estimates that combine direction, intensity, confidence and event importance. They are not investment advice.