Kalshi, Polymarket July 2026 Volume Hits Record $50.59 Billion on FIFA World Cup

Combined trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached a record high in July 2026, exceeding $50 billion. According to the latest data, combined monthly volume for July was $50.59 billion, up 7.8% from June's $46.95 billion. Kalshi maintained its lead with $37.7 billion in monthly volume, a 14% increase from the prior month.

A notable shift occurred between Polymarket and Polymarket US. Polymarket's monthly volume fell 26% to $7.9 billion, while Polymarket US rose 54% to $5 billion. Their combined volume dropped from $14 billion to $12.9 billion. Polymarket US is regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and opened to all US users in May after removing its waitlist restrictions; earlier estimates suggested US traders accounted for roughly 30% of volume on the primary platform.

The July surge was largely driven by the FIFA World Cup, which began on June 11 and ended on July 19. Prediction markets for the Spain-Argentina final attracted about $1.9 billion, while Polymarket's champion picks drew around $4 billion. After the tournament concluded, open interest across the three platforms fell from about $2 billion to $1.2 billion.

Prediction markets face legal scrutiny, with regulators in several states accusing Kalshi and Polymarket of operating unlicensed gambling platforms and taking steps to block their event contracts. The platforms, along with the CFTC, are contesting these actions, arguing that federal regulation preempts state jurisdiction.