Shanxi Coking Coal Mine Shutdowns Reach 92.55 Million Tonnes; Coke Futures Jump Over 5%

Since August, domestic thermal coal spot prices and coke and coking coal futures have started a new upward trend. On August 11, the main coking coal futures contract for September 2026 surged 5.41%, with the latest settlement price up more than RMB 110 per tonne from the end of July. On August 10, the ex-wharf price of thermal coal (Q5500, Shanxi origin) at Qinhuangdao Port reached RMB 854 per tonne, rising for six consecutive days and approaching the year's high set in mid-June 2026.

In May 2026, Shanxi comprehensively upgraded its coal mine safety production inspection and rectification work, with a large number of mines in the region entering a suspended production review status. Starting May 23, a total of 186 coking coal mines in Shanxi were suspended, involving a combined capacity of 252.65 million tonnes. As a result, Shanxi's coal output in June 2026 fell significantly month-on-month. As of July 29, 101 mines had resumed production, while 85 mines remained suspended, with total suspended capacity still reaching 92.55 million tonnes.

In July 2026, the General Office of the Shanxi Provincial Government issued the "Seventeen New Measures for Coordinating Coal Industry Development and Safety in Shanxi (Draft for Comments)", requiring the thorough cleanup and elimination of concealed working faces, strict investigation of monitoring data fraud, and severing of illegal employment and sales interest chains. Mines that refuse to rectify will face severe measures including permanent sealing. The National Mine Safety Supervision Administration issued Document No. 83, organizing nationwide rectification of prominent safety production problems in the mining sector, focusing on concealed working face operations and safety monitoring system fraud. The rectification is carried out in stages: before August 15, 2026, is the mobilization and deployment stage; before September 15, the self-inspection and self-correction stage; before November 30, the joint inspection and joint treatment stage; and before December 31, the summary and evaluation stage. During the joint inspection and joint treatment stage, provincial mine safety supervision departments will conduct random inspections at a rate of no less than 20%.

The "15th Five-Year Plan for Coal Industry Development", released on August 10, optimizes domestic coal capacity at the industrial top-level design level. The plan clarifies that new capacity must be incorporated into the capacity "one ledger" before implementation, and capacity replacement policies must be strictly enforced. For coal mines in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang (except southern Xinjiang) with capacity below 1.2 million tonnes per year, mines in Ningxia with capacity below 600,000 tonnes per year, and mines in other regions with capacity below 300,000 tonnes per year, new construction and expansion will in principle be stopped. In addition, new construction of coal and gas outburst mines with capacity below 900,000 tonnes per year will be stopped, as will new mines with first-level mining depth exceeding 1,000 meters and expansion projects with mining depth exceeding 1,200 meters. New construction and expansion of small mines with mining depth exceeding 600 meters will also be stopped. The plan also proposes that by 2030, the proportion of large modern coal mine capacity nationwide will rise to 87%, the proportion of intelligent coal mine capacity will rise to 75%, and the orderly exit of backward capacity will be promoted.