Strongest El Niño in 150 Years Forming, Scientist Warns at July 23 Briefing

Since June, the Pacific sea surface warming and strong wind patterns characteristic of El Niño have been rapidly intensifying. Data from 14 climate models predict that the median peak sea surface temperature will be about 0.8 degrees Celsius higher than the record 2015-2016 event.

The accompanying heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires will have global economic impacts. Previously, the strong 1997-1998 El Niño caused climate anomalies that led to a global economic contraction of $5.7 trillion over the following years. Additionally, El Niño stresses ecosystems and oceans, reducing their ability to absorb carbon from the atmosphere, and warming seas exacerbate coral bleaching.

Notably, this El Niño comes only two years after the last one. Its real significance is whether it signals that human-caused climate change is systematically shifting the ENSO cycle. Researchers are still debating whether this trend can be seen in existing climate observations. Currently, the climate system is in a transition period, and it will only stabilize once humans stop emitting carbon dioxide.