China's Trillion-Yuan Cities Race in H1 2026: Ningbo Leads Tianjin and Qingdao, Hefei Outpaces Jinan

Economic data for trillion-yuan cities in the first half of 2026 has largely been released. The top ten economic cities remain relatively stable in ranking, with growth variables and competitive highlights concentrated in the "second tier" of Ningbo, Tianjin, Qingdao, Wuxi, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Hefei, and Jinan. Nearly all of these cities have set breaking the RMB 2 trillion GDP mark as a core goal for the next five years.

The economic race among Ningbo, Tianjin, and Qingdao has continued for years. Ningbo overtook Qingdao in 2019 and surpassed Tianjin in 2024, holding a lead of about RMB 17.6 billion over Tianjin in 2025. In the first half of 2026, Ningbo recorded a GDP of RMB 946.0 billion, up 5.4% year on year, with an economic increment of RMB 59.9 billion, widening its gap with Tianjin and Qingdao to over RMB 30 billion. During the period, Ningbo's value-added industrial output above designated size grew 8.9% year on year, with high-end equipment, high-tech, and core digital economy manufacturing value-added rising 15.9%, 12.2%, and 11.2%, respectively. Total imports and exports grew 6.9%.

Qingdao and Tianjin swapped positions. In the first half of 2026, Qingdao's GDP reached RMB 913.818 billion, up 5.5% year on year; Tianjin's GDP was RMB 913.779 billion, up 4.8%. Qingdao surpassed Tianjin for the first time by a slender margin of RMB 0.039 billion. In the first half, Qingdao's value-added industrial output above designated size grew 7.3% year on year, while Tianjin's grew 4.4%, a gap of 2.9 percentage points. From 2015 to 2025, the Yangtze River Economic Belt's share of national GDP rose from 42.2% to 47.3%, reflecting a broader pattern of "southern growth and northern decline" among China's major economic cities.

Hefei overtook Jinan by a marginal RMB 0.8 billion in the first half. Jinan's GDP grew 5.5% year on year, ranking among the top 20 cities, with its tertiary industry growing 7%. Hefei posted a GDP of RMB 707.3 billion, up 6.8% year on year, continuing its 2025 growth momentum and leading all top-20 cities. Hefei's secondary industry grew 10.3%, and value-added industrial output above designated size rose 25.6%, with high-tech manufacturing value-added jumping 79.0% and maintaining over 30% growth for 12 consecutive months.

In May 2026, Anhui Province issued the "Measures for the Administration of Provincial Government Investment Funds," elevating Hefei's experience in industrial investment to a provincial institutional arrangement. Changxin Technology went public in 2026, drawing attention to its industrial synergy with Hefei.

Changsha, Zhengzhou, and Hefei—three central provincial capitals—have all set RMB 2 trillion goals, but their growth curves diverged sharply in the first half. Zhengzhou's GDP reached RMB 777.3 billion, up 4.8% year on year, above the national average but 0.2 percentage points below Henan's provincial growth. Zhengzhou's secondary industry grew 6.7%, with value-added industrial output above designated size rising 13.6%, including high-tech manufacturing, strategic emerging industries, and high-tech industry value-added growing 33.2%, 17.8%, and 16.6%, respectively. Tertiary industry and total retail sales of consumer goods grew weakly.

Changsha's GDP was RMB 785.8 billion in the first half, up 2.5% year on year, below both provincial and national averages, with secondary and tertiary industry growth ranking near the bottom among trillion-yuan cities. The GDP gap between Zhengzhou and Changsha has narrowed to less than RMB 10 billion. Changsha's economic growth was 4% in 2025, and the first half of 2026 has yet to reverse its low-growth trajectory.