China's Yttrium Export Controls Pressure US as Aerospace Shortages Persist
In early 2025, China imposed export controls on yttrium and six other rare earths, disrupting deliveries to the United States for months and causing shortages in aerospace, energy and semiconductor industries. China shipped 60 tonnes of yttrium oxide to the US in March 2026 and 29 tonnes in July 2026 after further interruptions. China also restricted gallium, germanium, terbium, dysprosium and tungsten exports.
In early 2025, China imposed export controls on yttrium and six other rare earths. Yttrium is a silver-coloured metal used in heat-resistant ceramic coatings for jet engines and power turbine blades, as well as in electronics and optics. China is the largest supplier of yttrium. After the controls took effect, deliveries to the United States were suspended for several months and have since resumed only sporadically, producing shortages across the aerospace, energy and semiconductor industries.
In October 2025, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a meeting, and yttrium supplies stopped shortly afterwards. By February 2026, the shortage had caused production halts in the US coating supply chain. In March 2026, China shipped 60 tonnes of yttrium oxide to the United States; in July 2026, after another interruption in shipments, a further 29 tonnes of yttrium oxide arrived in the country.
Beyond yttrium, China has also restricted supplies of gallium, germanium, terbium and dysprosium, and limited tungsten exports to the West. In 2010, China took similar measures during a diplomatic dispute with Japan over contested islands in the East China Sea. Other countries have likewise used export controls on minerals they dominate, such as Indonesia's restrictions on nickel and bauxite.
In September 2026, an executive at an industrial distribution company said at an industry conference that tight supply had again affected the company's supply chain, driving up prices for tools and consumables used by factories and machine shops across North America. Building alternative mining and refining capacity would take years.
Why this event matters
The event has a measured impact on 6 industrys. The strongest current signal is mixed for Base Metals, with intensity 70/100 and 75% confidence over a medium term horizon.
Base Metals
- Direction
- mixed
- Intensity
- 70
- Confidence
- 75%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Aerospace Manufacturing
- Direction
- negative
- Intensity
- 65
- Confidence
- 75%
- Horizon
- Short term
Energy Transition Metals
- Direction
- positive
- Intensity
- 65
- Confidence
- 70%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Semiconductor Value Chain
- Direction
- negative
- Intensity
- 60
- Confidence
- 70%
- Horizon
- Short term
Defence Equipment
- Direction
- negative
- Intensity
- 55
- Confidence
- 65%
- Horizon
- Short term
General Industrial Equipment
- Direction
- negative
- Intensity
- 50
- Confidence
- 65%
- Horizon
- Short term
Impact figures are analytical estimates that combine direction, intensity, confidence and event importance. They are not investment advice.