EIA Sees 600,000 b/d Oil Supply Disruption from US-Iran War Lasting Through 2027
The U. S. Energy Information Administration estimates that the U. -Iran conflict will keep about 600,000 barrels per day of oil supply off the market through the end of 2027, as the fighting continues to impede shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency reported that oil flows through the strategic waterway averaged just 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, down sharply from 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, before the U. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran.
The U. S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that the U. -Iran war is disrupting roughly 600,000 barrels per day of oil supply, and the disruption is expected to last until the end of 2027 because the conflict continues to block oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The agency estimated that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, before the U. and Israel launched attacks on Iran.
Why this event matters
The event has a measured impact on 3 industrys. The strongest current signal is positive for Oil & Gas Exploration, with intensity 85/100 and 80% confidence over a short term horizon.
Oil & Gas Exploration
- Direction
- positive
- Intensity
- 85
- Confidence
- 80%
- Horizon
- Short term
Shipping & Ports
- Direction
- negative
- Intensity
- 80
- Confidence
- 85%
- Horizon
- Immediate
Refining & Petrochemicals
- Direction
- negative
- Intensity
- 75
- Confidence
- 75%
- Horizon
- Short term
Impact figures are analytical estimates that combine direction, intensity, confidence and event importance. They are not investment advice.