IMF Sees Global GDP Above $150 Trillion by 2030, US Leads, China Second
The IMF projects global nominal GDP will exceed $150 trillion by 2030, reaching $150.344 trillion, driven mainly by emerging Asia. The US remains the largest economy at $37.7 trillion, followed by China at $26 trillion and Germany at $6.2 trillion. India trails Germany by just $5 billion. The IMF did not provide forecasts for ten countries, including Afghanistan and Venezuela.
According to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, the global economy will exceed $150 trillion by 2030, reaching $150.344 trillion in nominal terms. This growth is driven mainly by emerging markets in Asia. The IMF projects that the United States, China, and Germany will remain the world's three largest economies in 2030, with nominal GDP of $37.7 trillion, $26 trillion, and $6.2 trillion, respectively. The IMF did not provide forecasts for Afghanistan, Bolivia, Cuba, Eritrea, Lebanon, North Korea, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Syria, and Venezuela.
The top three economies in 2030 are the same as in 2026. Between 2026 and 2030, these three economies will add more than $10 trillion in combined output, with China contributing the largest increase. The top ten economies are the United States, China, Germany, India, the United Kingdom, Japan, France, Brazil, Italy, and Canada.
Germany and India are extremely close in the rankings. Germany's projected 2030 GDP is $6.178 trillion, while India's is $6.173 trillion, a difference of only $5 billion. On a purchasing power parity basis, India's economy is already about three times the size of Germany's.
After China and India, Japan is the third-largest economy in the region at $5 trillion, followed by South Korea at $2.3 trillion and Indonesia at $2.1 trillion. Japan's economy has long stagnated, with weak growth in recent decades. Once the world's second-largest economy, Japan was overtaken by China in 2010 and by Germany in 2024.
In contrast, in both North America and South America, a single country accounts for more than half of the continent's economic output. Assuming no new members join or leave the European Union, the combined nominal GDP of EU countries in 2030 will be $26.5 trillion, led by Germany, France ($4 trillion), and Italy ($3 trillion). The United Kingdom, at $5.1 trillion, will be Europe's largest non-EU economy, followed by Russia at $2.6 trillion.