28 Provinces Report Fiscal Self-Sufficiency Below 100% in Q1 2026; Zhejiang Leads at 96.1%
In the first quarter of 2026, all 28 provinces that disclosed their fiscal data had fiscal self-sufficiency rates below 100%. Zhejiang led at 96.1%, while six coastal provinces exceeded 70% and half of the provinces fell below 50%, with Tibet at 13.8%. The Ministry of Finance noted that local fiscal self-sufficiency typically falls short of 100% and that central transfer payments of 9.4 trillion yuan in the first half of 2026, or 90.3% of the annual budget, help maintain balance.
A chart titled 'Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure of 28 Provinces in the First Quarter of 2026' shows that all 28 provinces that have disclosed their first-quarter fiscal data had fiscal self-sufficiency rates below 100%. The fiscal self-sufficiency rate is defined as the ratio of a region's general public budget revenue to its general public budget expenditure. According to the chart, Zhejiang recorded the highest rate at 96.1%, while the coastal provinces of Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, and Guangdong all exceeded 70%. Half of the provinces reported rates below 50%, with Tibet at the bottom at 13.8%.
Tang Zaifu, deputy director of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance, responded at a press conference that local general public budget revenue is only one of the sources of expenditure, and that a fiscal self-sufficiency rate below 100% is normal. He noted that although local rates are below 100%, the central government has increased transfer payments to local governments, enabling local finances to achieve balance.
According to Ministry of Finance data, the average local fiscal self-sufficiency rate was approximately 55% in 2015 and fell to about 50% in 2025, a decline of about five percentage points over ten years. In the first half of 2026, China's individual income tax grew 13.1% year-on-year, securities transaction stamp duty surged 97.3%, and revenue from state-owned land-use rights transfer dropped 31.5%. Tang Zaifu stated that in the first half of 2026, the central government had disbursed RMB 9.4 trillion in transfer payments to local governments, accounting for 90.3% of the full-year budget.
Why this event matters
The event has a measured impact on 3 industrys. The strongest current signal is mixed for Municipal Utilities, with intensity 55/100 and 70% confidence over a medium term horizon.
Municipal Utilities
- Direction
- mixed
- Intensity
- 55
- Confidence
- 70%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Building Construction
- Direction
- negative
- Intensity
- 50
- Confidence
- 65%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Construction Machinery
- Direction
- negative
- Intensity
- 45
- Confidence
- 65%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Impact figures are analytical estimates that combine direction, intensity, confidence and event importance. They are not investment advice.