Researcher: 2025 Global Temperature 1.37C Above Average as Super El Nino Develops

A super El Nino is continuing to develop, with extreme weather events breaking out in multiple locations worldwide. El Nino is an interannual ocean-atmosphere coupling phenomenon, while global warming is a climate background on a decades-long scale. The threshold for identifying El Nino is a key ocean-area sea surface temperature 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal; the current anomaly in that area has exceeded 2.5 degrees Celsius, placing it in the super-strong category. The 2025 global mean temperature is 1.37 degrees Celsius above the historical average. A complete confirmation of a super El Nino generally comes only between November and February of the following year.

As temperatures rise, ocean evaporation strengthens, the global water cycle accelerates overall, atmospheric water vapor content increases, and atmospheric motion gains more energy. Observations show that precipitation in northern China has increased, vegetation in areas such as Ordos has improved substantially, and lakes and water bodies in many parts of Xinjiang have expanded. The distribution of increased humidity is uneven; not all regions have become wetter, and some areas have instead trended drier.

Academic opinion is divided on precipitation trends. Some hold that increased precipitation in the north is a long-term trend, while others argue that precipitation follows a 20- to 30-year dry-wet cycle and that the current period is merely a wetter phase. Public statements are based on observed facts. What is not disputed is that light rain events are becoming less frequent, while the intensity and frequency of individual heavy precipitation events are increasing.

El Nino mainly affects summer precipitation in China by altering the north-south movement of the western Pacific subtropical high. China's rain belt sits over southern China in March and April, then gradually advances northward, with the center of precipitation reaching northern China in July and August before retreating southward. The typical El Nino response pattern is southern floods and northern drought, with the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River focused on flood prevention and northern regions such as northern China, the Huang-Huai-Hai plain and Inner Mongolia focused on drought prevention. El Nino mostly occurs across calendar years, and a warm winter is highly likely in the first winter. Globally, El Nino's effects diverge markedly: drought risk is higher in Southeast Asia and Australia, while agriculture in Brazil and the southern United States comes under pressure.