Trump Pledges $5,000 Dividend to Every US Adult if Republicans Win 2026 Midterms

On September 9, 2026, US President Trump said at a Republican midterm election rally in Dallas that if Republicans win both the House of Representatives and the Senate, he will pay every American adult citizen a $5,000 dividend, citing the strength of the US economy and its achievements. The US midterm elections will be held in November 2026, when one-third of Senate seats and all 435 House seats will be up for election. The plan's total cost is estimated at more than $1 trillion.

So far this fiscal year, the US government has paid $1.27 trillion in interest on the national debt, while defense spending for 2026 totals $1.36 trillion. So far this fiscal year, the US fiscal deficit is approaching $1.8 trillion. From October 2025 to July 2026, US government spending exceeded $6 trillion, and the fiscal deficit was about 5.8% of gross domestic product. As of the first quarter of 2026, US government debt was equivalent to 122.6% of gross domestic product.

Under US federal law, paying or promising to pay money to induce someone to vote, not vote, or support or oppose a candidate is a criminal offense punishable by a fine, up to one year in prison, or both. If the violation is willful, the maximum prison term is two years. The Wisconsin Elections Commission subsequently referred two complaints to the Brown County district attorney's office, which will decide whether to charge Musk.

Trump has previously promised direct cash payments to Americans on multiple occasions, but some of those plans were ultimately not carried out. Shortly after the start of his second term, Trump supported the idea of paying Americans a $5,000 "DOGE dividend," the basic concept being to return to the public part of the savings obtained by the Department of Government Efficiency through cuts to government spending, but the plan was never realized. The Department of Government Efficiency was established early in Trump's second term, led by Musk, and has now been dissolved. Trump also proposed a so-called "tariff rebate," which would use tariff revenue to pay each American $2,000, but that too was not implemented. After the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariff system was unlawful, the idea was not carried out.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, both Trump's first term and the subsequent Biden administration spent trillions of dollars on direct cash checks to US households to stimulate the economy. To curb inflation, starting in March 2022 the Federal Reserve began one of the most aggressive rate-hiking cycles in decades, at one point raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 5.25% to 5.5%. Starting in September 2024, the Federal Reserve cut rates three times each in 2024 and 2025, for a cumulative reduction of 175 basis points over the two years; the target range for the federal funds rate is currently 3.5% to 3.75%. Since the start of 2026, the Federal Reserve has held rates steady at its first five meetings.