Adobe Stock Rebounds 22% in July After 70% Decline, Recaptures 200-Month Average
Adobe shares fell more than 70% from their February 2024 peak to a June 2026 low, with a 26% year-to-date decline ranking the stock 30th in the S&P 500. The stock briefly broke below its 200-month moving average, and the 14-month RSI entered oversold territory for the first time since March 2009. In July 2026, Adobe surged 22%, recapturing the 200-month average in its fourth monthly gain of 20% or more. The monthly MACD is approaching its first buy signal since 2023, while the 200-day moving average remains a key test.
Adobe shares fell more than 70% from their February 2024 peak to a June 2026 low. Year-to-date in 2026, the stock is down 26%, ranking 30th among S&P 500 constituents, meaning more than 470 stocks in the index have outperformed Adobe this year. As a software stock, Adobe has also been dragged down by weakness across the sector. With the rapid rise of artificial intelligence technology, market scrutiny of its competitive position has intensified, and investor sentiment at one point sank to deeply pessimistic levels.
On the monthly chart, Adobe broke below its 2022 low earlier this year and briefly fell beneath the 200-month moving average. Meanwhile, the 14-month relative strength index entered oversold territory, approaching the 30 threshold for the first time since the March 2009 financial crisis low. Historically, this is also the second time Adobe's stock has fallen below the 200-month moving average. The recent rebound has brought the stock back above the 200-month average, and it is now approaching the previously broken support zone, which has now turned into resistance.
In July 2026, Adobe shares rose 22%, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500. The rebound recaptured the 200-month moving average, marking the fourth time in the stock's history that monthly gains reached or exceeded 20%. Two of the previous three instances occurred after the 2009 and 2011 lows, both followed by strong subsequent rallies. The current move comes after a prolonged decline, more closely resembling a successful reversal pattern.
The moving average convergence divergence indicator on the monthly chart is approaching its first buy signal since 2023. From the 2021 peak to the end of 2022, the stock lacked signs of technical improvement. After the broader market bottomed in October 2022, Adobe began to recover, eventually forming a monthly MACD buy signal that drove a significant rally.
On the daily chart, the 200-day moving average is a key test level. Before the end of 2021, Adobe spent most of its time above the rising 200-day moving average, with pullbacks to that line often viewed as buying opportunities. But the situation has since changed: for most of 2022 and from 2024 to the present, the 200-day moving average has been declining and acting as resistance. Currently, the average sits less than 20 points above the current price. The stock challenged this level unsuccessfully at the end of 2025, while the early 2023 move offers a more instructive comparison, when the stock consolidated around this line for several weeks before successfully recapturing it and launching a strong rally.