Politburo Meeting Sparks Bond Rally; 10-Year Yield Hits July Low of 1.7075%; 30-Year Futures Hit New High
Following the Politburo meeting on July 30, 2026, China's bond market strengthened. The 10-year government bond yield fell to 1.7075%, a new July low. Trading in 30-year active bonds surged, with ultra-long-term bond trades reaching 2,688 lots. The 30-year treasury futures contract rose 0.59% to RMB 115.39, the highest close since November 24, 2025. The Politburo reiterated a moderately accommodative monetary policy and called for faster fiscal spending and bond issuance. First-half special bond issuance totalled RMB 2.07 trillion, a 47% completion rate, suggesting accelerated third-quarter fiscal deployment.
On July 30, 2026, the bond market strengthened. The 10-year government bond yield briefly approached 1.70% and hit 1.7075%, a new low since July. Trading volume in the 30-year active bond expanded rapidly, with the tkn ratio soaring. As of 5:30 p. m. , ultra-long-term treasury bond trades reached 2,688 lots.
Treasury bond futures saw a rapid volume increase in late trading, with all tenors closing higher. The 30-year main contract rose 0.59% to RMB 115.39, its highest closing level since November 24, 2025.
The Politburo meeting's communiqué maintained the wording of "moderately accommodative" monetary policy, calling for comprehensive use and timely adjustment of monetary policy tools. On fiscal policy, the meeting emphasized accelerating fiscal spending and the use of bond funds.
In the first half of the year, new special bond issuance reached RMB 2.07 trillion, a 47% completion rate, lower than the same period in 2025. The meeting's requirement to accelerate fiscal spending and bond fund usage implies that the third quarter will see a period of concentrated fiscal efforts, with special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds to be issued and disbursed at a faster pace.