China A-Share Agriculture Stocks Surge on El Nino, Corn Supply Concerns and Seed Policy
On September 17, 2026, China's A-share agriculture sector rallied, with Dunhuang Seed, Wanxiang Doneed and Jinjian Cereals hitting the 10% daily limit. The move followed a global corn stock-to-use ratio of 17.8%, a three-year high in CBOT corn futures, an El Nino expected to last into 2027, and seed-industry revitalization policy. Wanxiang Doneed trades at 167.79 times dynamic earnings, while Shennong Seed posted a first-half loss of RMB 13.4991 million.
On the afternoon of September 17, 2026, China's A-share agriculture sector strengthened again, with multiple stocks hitting their daily limit. Dunhuang Seed, Wanxiang Doneed and Jinjian Cereals rose by the 10% limit; Shennong Seed and Yasheng Group gained more than 7%, Denghai Seed rose more than 6%, and Nongfa Seed and SDIC Fengle gained more than 5%. The sector had previously undergone several days of correction.
Public data show that Wanxiang Doneed's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio stood at 167.79 times, its static price-to-earnings ratio at 835.57 times and its price-to-book ratio at 8.91 times. The company said in an announcement that its share price had seriously deviated from fundamentals and a reasonable valuation range. Yasheng Group's static price-to-earnings ratio exceeded 800 times, while the median static price-to-earnings ratio for the agriculture industry was 26.54 times. Shennong Seed reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 13.4991 million for the first half of 2026, with losses in nine of its 15 years since listing, yet its price-to-book ratio reached 10 times. Xinnong Development had a negative static price-to-earnings ratio, a return on invested capital that has been negative for years, and a price-to-book ratio of 4.5 times.
Trading data show that Shennong Seed's turnover rate reached 44.12% at one point, while Dunhuang Seed's cumulative turnover rate over the past month was 481.38%, with an average daily turnover rate of more than 32%. During the same period, several companies issued risk warnings in quick succession: Xinsai Shares issued four risk warnings over four consecutive trading days, citing overheated market sentiment and risks of irrational speculation; Dunhuang Seed issued three consecutive risk warnings on September 8, September 9 and September 11, saying its share-price gain had significantly detached from the company's fundamentals; Wanxiang Doneed and Yasheng Group also announced risks of rapid share-price declines at any time.
On supply, demand and policy, a super El Nino is expected to persist into 2027, the global corn stock-to-use ratio has fallen to 17.8%, Chicago Board of Trade corn futures prices have hit a three-year high, and the seed-industry revitalization policy in the central No. 1 document has been implemented. Domestically, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that China's summer grain output reached 301.49 billion jin in 2026, up 0.7% year on year and exceeding 300 billion jin for the first time, with the self-sufficiency rate for staple grains close to 100%. China applies a minimum purchase price policy for grain, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said it will keep prices of grain and important agricultural products at a reasonable level.