Moderna-Merck mRNA Cancer Vaccine Hits Phase III Goals; Shares Surge Then Retreat
Moderna and Merck announced positive Phase III results for their investigational mRNA cancer vaccine Intismeran (V940/mRNA-4157), meeting key endpoints for recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival. On August 19, Moderna shares jumped 170% and Merck rose 12%, while the Nasdaq biotech index gained 4%. The next day, shares fell over 20% and 4%, respectively. AI models accelerated development by screening up to 34 targets.
Moderna and Merck jointly announced positive results from the Phase III clinical trial of Intismeran (development code V940/mRNA-4157), an investigational therapeutic mRNA cancer vaccine. The vaccine aims to achieve two key endpoints during cancer treatment: recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival. The Phase III trial results showed that both endpoints were met in a sufficiently large sample, with stable and reproducible outcomes and an excellent safety profile, bringing the vaccine one step closer to clinical application. Previously, all approved cancer vaccines were preventive, administered to healthy individuals to reduce cancer risk.
On August 19, the day of the announcement, Moderna's share price surged 170% in a single day, adding tens of billions of dollars to its market value. Merck rose 12%, its largest one-day gain since March 2009. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index gained 4% that day, reaching an all-time high. On August 20, Moderna and Merck shares fell more than 20% and more than 4%, respectively, and have since continued to fluctuate.
During the development of mRNA therapies, AI large models helped researchers complete protein folding simulations, binding affinity predictions, and immune response modeling within hours, precisely screening up to 34 targets with the strongest immune-killing potential.
A scenario report titled "AI 2027" was co-authored by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean. Daniel Kokotajlo served as a researcher in OpenAI's governance department from 2022 to 2024, where he designed top-level architecture, processes, and oversight mechanisms for the company's strategy implementation. He declined to sign OpenAI's non-disparagement agreement, forfeiting stock options worth millions of dollars, and was later named to Time magazine's 2024 AI 100 list.
The report categorizes AI capabilities into four levels: "amateur," "professional practitioner," "superhuman," and "superintelligent."
The report predicts that after April 2025, AI will begin to demonstrate agency, autonomously completing tasks and becoming the primary executor of workflows. By the end of 2025, a data center construction boom will emerge, with leading large-model companies announcing plans to build the world's largest data centers. China will experience an "AI awakening" around mid-2026, finding solutions to computing power shortages and developing large models capable of entering the first tier. The report also predicts that leading AI companies will draft "framework guidelines" to govern model behavior, with goals covering helpfulness, harmlessness, and honesty.
The report forecasts that AI applications will experience an explosive growth period from late 2027 to early 2028, with a large number of AI tools capable of replacing human labor emerging in industries such as manufacturing, services, and media.
As of the end of August 2026, AI-related capital expenditures by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta had reached $700 billion. According to statistics, as of August 2026, the total capacity of new data centers in the United States was approximately 27.5 gigawatts, with construction capital expenditures already reaching $1.1 trillion.