Novo Nordisk CEO Says Weight-Loss Market Won't Be Winner-Take-All; Analysts Cut 2030 Forecast to Over $100 billion
Novo Nordisk's CEO dismissed concerns of a winner-take-all dynamic in the weight-loss drug market, even as analysts slashed their 2030 global sales forecast to over $100 billion from a prior $150–200 billion range. The revision reflects price cuts on GLP-1 drugs in the U. S. and intensifying competition in the self-pay segment. Novo Nordisk's shares have fallen more than 60% from their 2024 peak, while Eli Lilly's market value surpassed $1 trillion. Novo Nordisk holds about 90% of the oral GLP-1 market with its oral Wegovy, and plans to launch CagriSema in 2027, which showed 23% average weight loss versus over 25% for Lilly's Zepbound.
Analysts had previously projected the weight-loss drug market to reach $150 billion to $200 billion by 2030, but they have sharply cut their forecasts, mainly due to price reductions on GLP-1 medications by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in the United States, as well as intensifying competition in the self-pay consumer market. More than 100 million American adults are classified as obese.
Novo Nordisk's shares have fallen significantly since peaking in 2024, and are now down two-thirds from their all-time high. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly's stock has continued to rise, making it the first pharmaceutical company to surpass a $1 trillion market capitalization. Novo Nordisk has taken an early lead in the oral GLP-1 market, with its oral version of Wegovy holding about a 90% share, partly due to clinical data showing superior weight-loss efficacy compared with Eli Lilly's oral drug Foundayo.
For next-generation weight-loss treatments, Novo Nordisk plans to launch CagriSema in 2027. Clinical data show that CagriSema helps patients lose an average of about 23% of their body weight, while Eli Lilly's current flagship product, Zepbound, achieves weight reduction of more than 25%. Currently, Novo Nordisk sells about 50% of the world's insulin products and has 12 different brands, providing a reference for its weight-loss drug portfolio.