US Copper Arbitrage Implies 37% Odds of 30% Tariff by 2028 as COMEX Hits $6.90 Record
Copper futures on COMEX reached a record near US$6.90 a pound, while the widening price gap versus London Metal Exchange contracts now signals US tariff risk. The spread implies a 37% probability that Washington will impose a 30% tariff on copper by 2028, following an existing 50% tariff on semi-finished copper and some copper-containing products. US imports of copper exceeded 200,000 metric tonnes in July, the most in 12 years, as tight supply and policy uncertainty fuel demand.
Copper futures touched a record high of US$6.90 per pound last week, with the spread between COMEX futures and London Metal Exchange (LME) contracts continuing to widen. Historically used for arbitrage and hedging, the spread is now being read by the market as a real-time gauge of US tariff risk. The US has imposed a 50% import tariff on semi-finished copper and certain copper-containing products.
US copper imports exceeded 200,000 metric tonnes in July, the highest monthly figure in 12 years.
The copper market has recently seen tight supply and rising import demand, while tariff policy developments continue to be a source of uncertainty.