Technology · 10.4

Artificial Intelligence

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 20-day window.

Average net impact+20weighted per event

Average gross impact25absolute weighted average

Events158same period

Confidence74%model average

Raw intensity61before weighting

Previous period0net impact

Gross changeInsufficient base

Diffusion speed7.9 / day

Concentration1%

Direction disagreement19%

Source independence98%28 sources

IMPACT TREND

20-day effective impact

Positive 122 · Negative 13 · Mixed 23

+310-31

11 Jul0 events

13 Jul0 events

15 Jul0 events

16 Jul0 events

18 Jul0 events

20 Jul1 event

21 Jul0 events

23 Jul1 event

+18

25 Jul4 events

+17

26 Jul86 events

+20

28 Jul43 events

+31

30 Jul23 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate2%65 cumulative effective impact

Short term23%887 cumulative effective impact

Medium term62%2443 cumulative effective impact

Long term13%519 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 2 of 16 · 155 events

Macro4

Macro29 Jul, 06:52positive

H1 2026 new infrastructure steady push: core industry output 2.98 trillion yuan, smart computing surges 177%

China’s new infrastructure buildout advanced steadily in the first half of 2026, with the core industry scale hitting 2.98 trillion yuan. Smart computing power reached 2,185 EFLOPS, surging 177% year-on-year, and 5G base stations exceeded 5.05 million. Technology-focused lending expanded, with loans to tech SMEs up 20.1% to 4.15 trillion yuan. A-share new-infrastructure-related financing surpassed 48 billion yuan, an 8.5-fold increase, while 169 listed companies in core new-infrastructure tracks reported combined H1 net profit of nearly 96.2 billion yuan, up over 59%. Low-orbit broadband constellations began regular launches, a 6G trial spectrum was granted, and 5G-Advanced networks covered 330 cities.

Effective: +50
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro30 Jul, 14:48positive

Politburo Pledges Proactive Fiscal and Moderate Monetary Easing to Accelerate Economic Transition

The Politburo met on July 30 to set H2 economic policy, calling for more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to accelerate the shift from old to new growth drivers. China's Q2 GDP grew 4.3% in real terms and 5.9% nominally, with the GDP deflator turning positive after 12 quarters. First-half general public budget expenditure reached RMB 14.33 trillion, up 1.5% year-on-year. Export growth in the first half stood at 17.6% in dollar terms, exceeding the 5.5% pace in 2025.

Effective: +49
Intensity: 78
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 17:47positive

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s First US Visit Brings $950 Billion Semiconductor-AI Plan

During his first US visit as president on July 24, 2026, South Korea’s Lee Jae-myung joined major Korean semiconductor firms and US artificial intelligence companies in announcing a series of cooperation plans worth approximately $950 billion. Lee met with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, and Broadcom CEO Hock Tan, and attended the San Francisco AI Summit. The summit was also attended by Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong and SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won.

Effective: +48
Intensity: 90
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Long term

Macro29 Jul, 19:08positive

China's IP Regulator to Explore Data IP Rules in 15th Five-Year Plan; GI Output Nears 1 Trillion Yuan

The National Intellectual Property Administration (NIPA) announced plans for the 15th Five-Year Plan period, including exploring data intellectual property protection rules and strengthening geographical indication (GI) protection. GI products' direct annual output value reached nearly 1 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. NIPA outlined five strategic priorities covering innovative, brand, specialty, digital, and open economies, and pledged to enhance AI-related IP rules and international cooperation.

Effective: +47
Intensity: 78
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries4

Industries28 Jul, 04:49positive

SoftBank Building AI Data Center in US; OpenAI Eyes Tenancy, Seeks $250 billion Nvidia Credit Guarantee

SoftBank Group is constructing an AI-focused data center in the US, and OpenAI is considering moving in. OpenAI is in talks with Nvidia to secure roughly $250 billion in credit guarantees that would underpin a lease agreement. The guarantee would cover lease costs and debt for facility construction, potentially easing access to financial institution funding for the unprofitable, privately held AI company. SoftBank announced in March that construction of the large-scale data center would begin this year in Ohio, as part of a $500 billion joint US-Japan project.

Effective: +52
Intensity: 88
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries30 Jul, 11:12positive

Domestic Tech Giants Accelerate AI Coding Push; Alibaba Qoder at 47.6% Revenue Share, Global Market $98-110B

Domestic tech giants are accelerating their push into AI coding. Alibaba's Qoder, online less than a year, has achieved a 47.6% revenue share, per IDC. The global enterprise AI coding market is annualized at $98-110 billion. Anthropic's Claude Code saw annualized revenue surge from $17 million to $2.5 billion in 10 months, and OpenAI's Codex surpassed $1 billion. ByteDance, Tencent, and others are developing proprietary models. AI coding is a major driver of cloud revenue and a key consumer of inference compute, with cost reduction becoming the next competitive frontier.

Effective: +49
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries29 Jul, 15:59positive

Hangzhou's 'Six Little Dragons' All Become Unicorns, DeepSeek Raises Over RMB 50 Billion in Single Round

Hangzhou's six emerging tech startups, known as the 'Six Little Dragons,' all reached unicorn status (valuation over $1 billion) within a year. DeepSeek set a record for China's AI industry with a single funding round of over RMB 50 billion. Digital economy core industries accounted for 29.5% of Hangzhou's GDP in 2025. The city's innovation ecosystem includes major labs, incubators, and over half of Zhejiang's 96 'new tech little dragons' are based in Hangzhou.

Effective: +47
Intensity: 85
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries31 Jul, 15:41positive

US tech giants ramp up AI infrastructure spending in July, annual capex plans near $800 billion

In July, major US tech companies rolled out full-year capital expenditure plans totaling close to $800 billion, directing funds toward AI servers, data centers, proprietary chips and memory capacity. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index initially dropped 11% in one week, with nearly 70% of semiconductor names down over 20% from their highs, before a late-month earnings-driven rebound lifted the index 8.19% in a single session. Alphabet raised its annual capex to $195–205 billion, Microsoft kept its $190 billion plan and Meta lifted its range to $130–145 billion. Intel raised its full-year spending to $20 billion and Tesla reaffirmed more than $25 billion in capex. Memory chip makers and other semiconductor firms secured large cloud orders, driving sharp rallies; SanDisk surged nearly 26% in one day.

Effective: +46
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Short term

Companies2

Companies30 Jul, 17:46positive

Moonshot AI Raises $3.5 Billion, Valuation $35 Billion, Annual Revenue Jumps to $300 Million

Moonshot AI has completed approximately $3.5 billion in funding, giving the Beijing-based company a post-money valuation of $35 billion. The round size was roughly double the initial target range of $1 billion to $2 billion. The company's annual recurring revenue rose to $300 million as of June, up from $100 million in March, supporting its valuation.

Effective: +51
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Short term

Companies30 Jul, 11:55negative

eMarketer sees US chatbot ad market at $10 billion by 2030, OpenAI targets 100 billion

OpenAI targets $100 billion in ad revenue by 2030, but eMarketer forecasts the entire US chatbot ad market at only $10 billion. OpenAI's ad model faces challenges: user intent is productivity, not shopping; brand safety risks; and lack of ad infrastructure. OpenAI is shifting to an "ad plus transaction" model, partnering with Visa and Stripe to enable AI agent commerce. Domestic Chinese AI firms are exploring similar paths.

Effective: -47
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Medium term