Mining & Resources · 2.3

Base Metals

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 200-day window.

Average net impact+27weighted per event

Average gross impact36absolute weighted average

Events18same period

Confidence79%model average

Raw intensity62before weighting

Previous period0net impact

Gross changeInsufficient base

Diffusion speed0.1 / day

Concentration8%

Direction disagreement25%

Source independence98%18 sources

IMPACT TREND

200-day effective impact

Positive 15 · Negative 3 · Mixed 0

+260-26

12 Jan0 events

29 Jan0 events

15 Feb0 events

3 Mar0 events

20 Mar0 events

6 Apr0 events

22 Apr0 events

9 May0 events

26 May0 events

+16

11 Jun1 event

28 Jun0 events

+26

15 Jul17 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate0%0 cumulative effective impact

Short term68%434 cumulative effective impact

Medium term29%187 cumulative effective impact

Long term3%19 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 1 of 2 · 18 events

Macro4

Macro27 Jul, 09:36positive

Industrial Firms' Profits Rise 18.7% in H1, Driven by Electronics and Nonferrous Metals

In the first half of the year, profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises totaled RMB 3,947.99 billion, up 18.7% year on year, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points from the first quarter. Operating revenue grew 6.5%, and the operating profit margin reached 5.7%, the highest cumulative level since the start of 2024. The electronics sector posted a 96.9% profit surge, contributing 8.5 percentage points to overall growth, while the nonferrous metals sector rose 99.4%, contributing 4.7 percentage points. Mining and manufacturing profits also expanded, but utilities declined. The data reflect the rapid growth of new drivers such as AI-related computing demand.

Effective: +63
Intensity: 88
Confidence: 95%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 09:38positive

Profits of China's Industrial Firms Up 18.7% in First Half 2026, Electronics Sector Surges 96.9%

China's industrial enterprises above designated size posted a 18.7% year-on-year profit growth in the first half of 2026, totaling 3.94799 trillion yuan. The pace accelerated 3.2 percentage points from the first quarter. The electronics sector led with a 96.9% surge, driven by AI and computing demand, contributing 8.5 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth. Revenue rose 6.5% and the profit margin improved to 5.70%.

Effective: +60
Intensity: 85
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 08:49negative

US Section 122 Expiry Triggers Tariff Replacements; Weighted Rate Hits 11.8%, China at 27.2%

Section 122 of the U. S. Trade Act of 1974 expired on July 24, 2026, prompting the activation of Sections 301, 232, and 338 as replacements. New 301 forced-labor tariffs on 60 economies and a Brazil-specific 301 tariff took effect, while overcapacity investigations continue. Section 232 tariffs cover steel, aluminum, and other sectors; Section 338 imposed 50% punitive tariffs on Canadian goods. The U. weighted effective tariff rate rose to 11.8% from 8.3%, with China's average rate climbing to 27.2% and Canada's to 7.8%. IEEPA-related tariff refunds of $166 billion are underway, with $81 billion completed.

Effective: -43
Intensity: 65
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Macro27 Jun, 09:30positive

China Industrial Profits Up 18.8% in Jan-May 2026; Nonferrous, Electronics Double, Auto, Steel Slump

In the first five months of 2026, China's industrial enterprises above designated size posted total profits of 3.14 trillion yuan, up 18.8% year-on-year. The profit margin on revenue reached 5.56%, up 0.63 percentage points. Profits of state-controlled enterprises rose 19.6%, while private firms grew 10.7%. By sector, nonferrous metals smelting and electronics manufacturing saw profits more than double, with gains of 117.1% and 103.9% respectively. In contrast, auto manufacturing profits fell 19.8% and ferrous metal smelting dropped 37.4%. The asset-liability ratio of industrial firms stood at 58.2% at end-May, up 0.3 percentage points.

Effective: +38
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Industries2

Industries30 Jul, 23:16positive

China H1 nonferrous metals output 41.513m tonnes; profit up 94% as AI spurs tin, tantalum, indium price surges

In the first half of 2026, China's output of ten nonferrous metals rose 3.3% year-on-year to 41.513 million tonnes, while profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the sector jumped 94% to RMB418.39 billion. AI computing infrastructure expansion spurred sharp gains in tin, tantalum and indium, with tin up 40%, tantalum soaring 158% and indium climbing 60%. Copper demand from AI and data centres kept copper prices elevated; global data centre copper consumption is forecast to reach 1.3 million tonnes by 2028. Industry surveys indicate AI servers use three times the tin of conventional units. Leading Chinese tin producers are building closed-loop recycling to boost secondary supply.

Effective: +72
Intensity: 92
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Short term

Industries29 Jul, 20:09positive

China's Non-Ferrous Metals Output 41.5 Million Tonnes in H1 2026, Revenue RMB5.77 Trillion, Profit Up 94%

In the first half of 2026, building on the first quarter, China's non-ferrous metals industry achieved steady production growth. Output of ten non-ferrous metals totaled 41.513 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. For 12,362 enterprises above designated size, combined revenue reached RMB5,769.68 billion, up 21.7%, and total profit hit RMB418.39 billion, surging 94% year-on-year.

Effective: +64
Intensity: 85
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Short term

Companies4

Companies27 Jul, 16:51positive

Shenhuo Reports H1 2026: Revenue 24.79 billion Yuan (+21.35%), Net Profit 4.78 billion Yuan (+151%), EPS 2.16 Yuan

Shenhuo Co. , Ltd. released its semi-annual report on July 27, 2026. For the first half of 2026, the company reported operating revenue of 24.79 billion yuan, up 21.35% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose 151.06% to 4.78 billion yuan. Basic earnings per share stood at 2.16 yuan. During the period, selling prices of coal and electrolytic aluminum increased, while the price of alumina, a key raw material, declined year-on-year.

Effective: +43
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Short term

Companies29 Jul, 21:39positive

Multiple Companies Release H1 2026 Results: Western Mining Net Profit Up 123%, Kaimeite Gas Down 60.75%

Several Chinese companies reported first-half 2026 earnings. Western Mining posted net profit of RMB 4.169 billion, up 123% year-on-year, while Kaimeite Gas saw net profit fall 60.75% to RMB 21.92 million. Other firms including Shengtun Mining, Mebon Bond, Lujiazui, Hongfa Technology, Zhongke Environmental, Hanbell Precise Machinery, and Fuman Microelectronics also disclosed results, with most showing growth.

Effective: +40
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Short term

Companies28 Jul, 12:50positive

DaoShi Technology H1 2026 Revenue 4.79B Yuan, Net Profit 290M Yuan; Strategic Resources Revenue Surges 49%

DaoShi Technology (300409) reported H1 2026 revenue of 4.794 billion yuan, up 31.21% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 290 million yuan, up 25.92%. The strategic resources segment drove growth with revenue of 2.586 billion yuan, up 49.31%, accounting for 53.93% of total revenue. The company also noted progress in new materials and the HeXi Atomic Intelligent Computing Center.

Effective: +36
Intensity: 65
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Companies29 Jul, 17:08positive

Western Mining 2026 H1 Net Profit Up 123% on Higher Nonferrous Metal Prices and Output

Western Mining reported 2026 first-half net profit of RMB 4.169 billion, up 123% year-on-year, on revenue of RMB 39.443 billion, up 25%. The growth was driven by rising nonferrous metal prices, with copper prices exceeding RMB 114,000 per tonne and molybdenum concentrate up over 32%. However, investment cash outflow surged 576% to RMB 9.999 billion due to acquisition payments, and asset impairment losses increased sharply. Some mineral output fell short of plan.

Effective: +33
Intensity: 60
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term