Pop Mart Overseas Momentum Cools as Domestic IP Growth Peaks, Experts See Reality Check

Pop Mart's recent performance has diverged across overseas and domestic markets. In overseas markets, the previously rapid growth in enthusiasm has receded, with store traffic and sales growth in some regions showing signs of slowing from earlier peaks. Meanwhile, growth headroom for core IPs in the domestic market is nearing saturation, with sales contribution growth from leading IPs narrowing markedly from previous levels, while the ability of new IPs to take over the baton remains unverified.

From a business structure perspective, Pop Mart has relied on a handful of hit IPs to drive overall revenue growth over the past several years. However, after multiple rounds of expansion in the domestic designer toy market, consumer novelty has waned and repurchase rate growth is under pressure. While the overseas market is viewed as a second growth curve, cultural differences, consumption habits, and local competitive dynamics across different countries and regions all create uncertainty for sustained volume growth.

Recent operating data disclosed by the company shows that overseas store expansion continues, but same-store sales growth on a year-on-year basis has fallen below the level of the same period in 2025. Domestically, the regulatory environment for blind box products and shifting consumer preferences have also raised the bar for product design and launch frequency. Pop Mart has not yet issued an official response to these market changes, and its upcoming earnings performance will reflect the actual effectiveness of its response strategy.