China New-Home Prices Rise in Top Cities as Discounts Are Withdrawn
In August 2026, new-home prices in China's first-tier cities rose 0.1% month on month, turning from flat, while declines in second- and third-tier cities narrowed to 0.1% and 0.2%. In September, projects in Chengdu, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou and Nanjing withdrew discounts or raised prices. Poly raised prices 1% on newly certified buildings in three Shanghai projects, while Nanjing projects announced increases of 1% to 3%.
New-home prices across China's 70 major cities showed first-tier cities turning from flat in the previous month to a 0.1% month-on-month rise in August 2026, with prices up in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou and down 0.2% in Beijing. Prices in second-tier cities fell 0.1% month on month and those in third-tier cities fell 0.2%, with the declines narrowing by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Year-on-year declines continued to narrow across all city tiers. National Bureau of Statistics data showed new-home prices remained stable in August despite the traditional off-season.
Entering September 2026, new-home projects in Chengdu, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Nanjing and other cities withdrew discounts or raised prices. An internal price-adjustment notice from a local Chengdu developer showed more than ten projects on sale uniformly withdrawing a 2% discount, while Yuexiu projects in Chengdu also withdrew discounts. Poly withdrew discounts or raised prices at projects in Shanghai, Guangzhou and other cities, with prices at three Shanghai projects raised 1% for newly certified buildings. Projects including Nanjing's Jiantou Aoti Yuyuan and Zhongjiao Haihe Xi announced price increases of 1% to 3%.
Yuexiu Property said the "828 New Policy" delayed the launch of subsequent new-home projects, and combined with Chengdu's new housing provident fund policy, its projects withdrew preferential terms. Chengdu Yuexiu Tianyue Yunqi sold out all three launches, with transactions exceeding RMB 200 million last week and more than 1,000 visits; the third phase of Chengdu Yuexiu Tianyue Yuncui obtained certificates for its latest six batches, with transactions of nearly RMB 80 million last week. In Guangzhou's Panyu district, sales efforts increased over the past half month, with discounts gradually recovered by about 1% to 2% over the past two weeks.
In Shanghai, for housing obtained pre-sale certificates after August 28, 2026, mortgage loans can only be disbursed after the housing is completed and filed, according to relevant banks.
Under the "828 New Policy", project pre-sale milestones are postponed until topping-out, mortgage disbursement is delayed until completion and filing, and pre-sale funds are unfrozen after completion and filing. The project company system makes each project independently bear funding pressure, and under the lead bank system, the room for negotiating development loans is compressed. The industry's basic operating unit has shifted from the group level to the project level, with project cash collection and financing depending more on the project's own quality.
Why this event matters
The event has a measured impact on 5 industrys. The strongest current signal is mixed for Residential Development, with intensity 75/100 and 78% confidence over a medium term horizon.
Residential Development
- Direction
- mixed
- Intensity
- 75
- Confidence
- 78%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Commercial Banks
- Direction
- mixed
- Intensity
- 50
- Confidence
- 65%
- Horizon
- Short term
Building Construction
- Direction
- mixed
- Intensity
- 45
- Confidence
- 55%
- Horizon
- Short term
Property Brokerage
- Direction
- positive
- Intensity
- 40
- Confidence
- 55%
- Horizon
- Short term
Real Estate Investment Trusts
- Direction
- mixed
- Intensity
- 35
- Confidence
- 50%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Impact figures are analytical estimates that combine direction, intensity, confidence and event importance. They are not investment advice.