1997 Book 'The Fourth Turning' Outlined Four-Stage Cycles in Anglo-American History
American historians William Strauss and Neil Howe published The Fourth Turning in 1997, proposing that Anglo-American history moves in cycles of roughly 80 to 100 years through four stages: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. Each turning lasts about 20 to 25 years. They argued that the current fourth turning began around 2008, catalyzed by the global financial crisis. Between 2008 and 2022, major central banks conducted about USD 20 trillion in asset purchases through quantitative easing, while asset prices rose sharply and wealth concentration increased.
American historians William Strauss and Neil Howe published The Fourth Turning in 1997, setting out a cyclical theory of Anglo-American history. Based on generational archetypes and long rhythms of about 80 to 100 years, the theory holds that history proceeds through four turnings, each lasting roughly 20 to 25 years: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.
The first turning, the High, is an era of institutional confidence and community solidarity after a major crisis, when rules work and trust exists; examples include the post-World War II boom and the Reconstruction era after the Civil War. The second turning, the Awakening, is a period of spiritual and cultural challenge to institutional consensus, as individualism revives and institutions are questioned; examples include the consciousness revolution of the 1960s and 1970s and the Second Great Awakening of the 1820s and 1830s. The third turning, Unraveling, is marked by weakening institutions, peak individualism, and decay of civic order, with trust in government, media, corporations, and one another collapsing; examples include the culture wars of the 1980s and 1990s and the Gilded Age of the 1870s to 1890s. The fourth turning, Crisis, is a decisive era of institutional destruction and rebuilding, usually catalyzed by existential threats such as war, economic collapse, or civilizational rupture; the Great Depression and World War II, the American Civil War, and the American Revolution all fall into this category.
Strauss and Howe wrote: "History is seasonal, and winter is coming." By their reckoning, the current fourth turning began around 2008, with the global financial crisis as its catalytic starting point. The theory holds that the outcome of a fourth turning cannot be predicted in detail, but structurally it has common features: old institutions are exposed as corrupt or incompetent, conflicting visions of a replacement order emerge, and the final result is decided by the faction able to mobilize sufficient social, political, economic, or military force. Between 2008 and 2022, major central banks implemented around USD 20 trillion in asset purchases through quantitative easing, during which asset prices rose substantially and wealth concentration increased.