About RMB 50 Trillion in High-Interest Deposits Maturing in 2026; Renewal Rate 80% to 90%

About RMB 50 trillion in high-interest time deposits is scheduled to mature in 2026. Most were placed in 2021 and 2023, when three-year and five-year deposit rates stood between 3% and 4%. Since 2023, commercial banks have cut deposit rates several times, and three-year and five-year rates have now fallen to around 1.7%, a decline of roughly 200 basis points. Central bank data show that household deposits reached RMB 166 trillion at the end of 2025, with time deposits of RMB 122 trillion accounting for three-quarters of the total.

Household deposits increased by RMB 7.58 trillion in the first half of 2026, below the increases recorded in the same period from 2022 to 2025. Several bankers said renewal rates for maturing deposits were generally between 80% and 90%, with about 9% of the funds flowing into wealth management products, mutual funds and insurance products, and 1% going directly into equities. In the first half of 2026, wealth management product balances rose by RMB 0.37 trillion, public mutual fund assets increased by RMB 1.95 trillion, and private securities fund assets increased by RMB 1 trillion, about three times the level of the same period in 2025.

Changes in non-bank deposits point to a stronger trend of deposits moving out of banks. In the first half of 2026, household deposits were RMB 3.2 trillion lower year on year, while non-bank deposits rose by RMB 2.4 trillion year on year, with total new non-bank deposits of RMB 4.65 trillion, a record for the period.

Interest rates have continued to fall. The 10-year government bond yield has dropped from 3.3% in 2020 to 1.7%, while the seven-day annualized yield on Yu'ebao has fallen from 2.3% to 0.84%. As the economic growth model shifts, financing demand from real estate and infrastructure has shrunk, emerging industries rely more on equity financing, and the supply of funds in the debt market exceeds demand, pulling the central level of interest rates lower.