China's Rare Earth Export Licenses Cut Japan Shipments 51% in H1 2026, Some to Zero
China's Ministry of Commerce introduced export licensing for seven rare earth elements in April 2025. In the first half of 2026, exports of these controlled minerals to Japan fell 51% year-on-year, while global exports declined 16%. June shipments to Japan dropped 81% from a year earlier, with yttrium exports falling to zero. Since March 2026, monthly exports have declined for four consecutive months. Dysprosium and terbium, essential for electric vehicle motors, saw zero shipments to Japan in 2026.
China's Ministry of Commerce introduced an export licensing regime in April 2025 to regulate shipments of seven rare earth elements, including dysprosium and terbium. According to trade data from the General Administration of Customs, exports of these seven controlled rare earths to Japan in the first half of 2026 fell 51% from the same period a year earlier, with some varieties dropping to zero; exports to the rest of the world declined 16% over the same period.
On a monthly basis, the decline was more pronounced. In June 2026, exports to Japan fell 81% from the same month in 2025, with yttrium shipments falling to zero. Since March 2026, exports to Japan have declined for four consecutive months. Dysprosium and terbium, used in electric vehicle motors, recorded zero exports to Japan in 2026.
Why this event matters
The event has a measured impact on 2 industrys. The strongest current signal is mixed for Energy Transition Metals, with intensity 80/100 and 90% confidence over a medium term horizon.
Energy Transition Metals
- Direction
- mixed
- Intensity
- 80
- Confidence
- 90%
- Horizon
- Medium term
New Energy Vehicles
- Direction
- negative
- Intensity
- 60
- Confidence
- 80%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Impact figures are analytical estimates that combine direction, intensity, confidence and event importance. They are not investment advice.