Investor HIS1963 Reviews 30-Year System: Odds Set Position Size, Raises Yield Hurdles After PetroChina Loss
Investor HIS1963, reflecting on his three-decade investment approach, said odds determine position sizing and raised his dividend yield thresholds after a PetroChina loss. He compared strategies in COSCO Shipping, noting a 79.36% return from a full position versus his actual rebalancing. In June 2026, oil holdings lost over 10%, prompting him to lift margin and full-position yield hurdles to 8% and 7%. He also contrasted 2015 (170% position, 4% yield) with 2026 (130%, 5.5%). His process filters stocks by dividend yield and macro signals.
The investor used price-to-earnings ratio, forward P/E, and forward dividend yield as primary valuation metrics at different stages, with investment cases involving companies such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Gree Electric. He described his early phase as roughly break-even for the first eight to nine years, which he regarded as a tuition-paying process.
The investor's methodology evolved through distinct stages.
His analysis tends to first assess the minimum return under adverse scenarios to gauge the margin of safety.
A review of his COSCO Shipping Holdings trades shows that on June 4, 2024, he compared two strategies: if he had held COSCO Shipping H-shares at full position from the start of the year, the return would have been 79.36%; his actual rebalancing among multiple stocks yielded only slightly more. He has repeatedly admitted his limited short-term trading ability, saying in August 2025 that 'tinkering is worse than not tinkering.'
In June 2026, the investor recorded a year-to-date loss of more than 10% on his oil stock holdings. In his review, he attributed the interim loss to 'buying too expensive and too much,' and revised his position discipline, raising the dividend yield threshold for margin financing and full positions to above 8% and 7%, respectively. He also compared his holdings in 2015 and 2026: in 2015, his position was about 170% with a portfolio dividend yield of about 4%; in 2026, the position was about 130% with a yield of about 5.5%, and he felt considerable pressure in both periods.
His stock selection process includes: first judging industry safety based on macro policy signals, then screening 20-30 candidate stocks using metrics such as dividend yield, narrowing to three to five key research targets, referencing public content from other researchers who have long tracked the relevant industries, and finally waiting for suitable prices to build positions gradually. In terms of sector allocation, the investor has shifted across industries in response to changes in the industrial environment, covering banking, home appliances, cement, coal, shipping, and oil. In May 2025, he said that for nearly three decades he had been essentially fully invested in a single stock, and for the past decade had been fully invested with leverage, calling it 'lucky that nothing went wrong,' and proposed ideas of moderate concentration, diversification, and holding cash. On May 14, 2026, he again added to his PetroChina position using margin financing, setting a position cap of 130%. He also said that this system based on forward dividend yields is essentially still a forecast, with the risk of misjudgment.