Energy · 1.2

Oil & Gas Exploration

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 7-day window.

Average net impact+6weighted per event

Average gross impact13absolute weighted average

Events18same period

Confidence77%model average

Raw intensity62before weighting

Previous period0net impact

Gross changeInsufficient base

Diffusion speed2.6 / day

Concentration9%

Direction disagreement52%

Source independence100%12 sources

IMPACT TREND

7-day effective impact

Positive 9 · Negative 6 · Mixed 3

+210-21

26 Jul, 203 events

27 Jul, 104 events

-8

28 Jul, 002 events

-3

28 Jul, 143 events

29 Jul, 041 event

+10

29 Jul, 182 events

30 Jul, 081 event

30 Jul, 220 events

+21

31 Jul, 122 events

1 Aug, 020 events

1 Aug, 160 events

2 Aug, 060 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate9%20 cumulative effective impact

Short term34%78 cumulative effective impact

Medium term51%116 cumulative effective impact

Long term6%13 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 1 of 2 · 18 events

Macro7

Macro31 Jul, 22:52positive

Shanghai SASAC Promotes Bulk Commodity Trade Development, Guomao Holdings Signs Agreements with SAIC and

Shanghai SASAC held a meeting on July 31 to accelerate high-quality development of bulk commodity trade and build an international trading and investment platform. The meeting emphasized strategic positioning, ecological cooperation, and regulatory services. Guomao Holdings, a municipal state-owned enterprise with 13 billion yuan registered capital established in November 2025, signed framework agreements with SAIC Motor, Shanghai Electric, Shenergy Group, and Shanghai International Port Group to deepen collaboration and build a bulk commodity industrial ecosystem.

Effective: +23
Intensity: 55
Confidence: 78%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 13:04positive

US launches 10%-12.5% tariffs on 60 trading partners, affecting 99.4% of imports; oil rebounds above $100 on

The United States on Friday imposed new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partners, including the EU, China, the UK and Canada, replacing an expiring temporary 10% duty. The move, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, cites forced labour: countries that have adopted or pledged to ban the practice face 10%, while others face 12.5%. The tariffs cover 99.4% of American imports. The action follows a Supreme Court ruling in February that struck down prior tariffs as unlawful. Separately, the military conflict between the US and Iran has entered its sixth month, pushing oil prices back above $100 a barrel, with global stock markets continuing to feel the impact of Middle East tensions.

Effective: +20
Intensity: 85
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Immediate

Macro29 Jul, 10:05positive

NOAA Predicts 81% Chance of Strong El Niño in 2026, May Affect Fed Rate Cuts

The U. S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts an 81% probability of a strong El Niño event in 2026, threatening to disrupt global food and energy markets at a time when an Iran-related oil supply shock is already pushing up inflation. New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh recently told Congress the central bank has “zero tolerance” for persistent price pressures, distinguishing them from one-off supply-driven increases. The double blow of higher food and fuel costs could complicate the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory.

Effective: +20
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 70%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro30 Jul, 08:00positive

National Energy Administration: Energy Investment in 15th Five-Year Plan to Exceed 20 Trillion Yuan

The National Energy Administration announced that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), investment in key energy projects and new business forms will exceed RMB 20 trillion, significantly higher than the 14th Five-Year Plan total. The investment, averaging over RMB 100 billion per day, is divided into three dimensions: safety, transition, and new opportunities. Safety project investment rises over 10%, grid investment growth exceeds 30%, and new energy's share of power source investment nears 60%. New business forms receive over RMB 2 trillion, focusing on green hydrogen, storage, and virtual power plants.

Effective: +19
Intensity: 60
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro28 Jul, 04:07negative

US Sold Over $130 Billion of Venezuelan Oil After Maduro's Capture

US President Donald Trump said in July 2026 that the United States had sold over $130 billion of Venezuelan oil since capturing former President Nicolas Maduro in January 2026. The proceeds were used to operate Venezuela and cover war costs, with the US retaining the government and cooperating with acting President Delcy Rodríguez. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported sales of 150 million barrels, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed audits by KPMG and funds held at Citibank. Democrats continued to demand full disclosure.

Effective: -15
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 06:59positive

Yemen's Houthis Claim Attacks on Three Saudi Oil Tankers, Continue Maritime Embargo

Yemen's Houthi group claimed to have attacked three Saudi oil tankers in the past 48 hours, continuing its maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia. The group warned that vessels heading to Saudi ports risk military strikes, and 16 Saudi ships have been forced to turn back at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening oil transport through the key Red Sea route.

Effective: +12
Intensity: 72
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Macro27 Jul, 18:45positive

National Energy Administration Issues Plan for Coalbed Methane Expansion in Eastern Ordos Basin

The National Energy Administration has issued a plan to increase coalbed methane reserves and production in the eastern Ordos Basin region for 2026-2030. The plan promotes pipeline interconnection and access to major national trunk lines including the Shaanxi-Beijing, West-East Gas Pipeline, and Yulin-Jinan pipelines. It also encourages digital and intelligent station construction and underground gas storage facilities.

Effective: +12
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries1

Industries28 Jul, 19:42negative

2026 Fortune Global 500 Energy Rankings Slide, Saudi Aramco Profit Surpassed by Alphabet, China Oil Majors

The 2026 Fortune Global 500 list, released July 28, showed energy companies declining in the top 20 by revenue. Saudi Aramco ranked fifth, down one place, with 2025 revenue of $445.53 billion (down 7.2%) and net profit of $92.79 billion (down 11.6%), losing its four-year title as the world's most profitable company to Alphabet, whose profit rose 32% to $132.17 billion. China's three oil majors all slid: CNPC to 10th, Sinopec to 12th, and CNOOC to 83rd, each reporting lower revenue and profit.

Effective: -17
Intensity: 72
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Medium term

Companies2

Companies31 Jul, 19:12positive

Middle East Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Boosts Exxon and Chevron Second-Quarter 2026 Earnings

Exxon Mobil and Chevron reported sharp gains in second-quarter 2026 profit on July 31, lifted by higher international oil prices from the Middle East conflict. Exxon posted earnings of $14.525 billion, while Chevron earned $12.072 billion. Sales rose 42% at Exxon to $116.017 billion and 56% at Chevron to $70.055 billion. Brent crude averaged $96.68 a barrel, up 23% from the prior quarter, and US crude rose 27% quarter on quarter.

Effective: +38
Intensity: 85
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Short term

Companies29 Jul, 23:48positive

NextEra Energy and Brookfield Plan $100 Billion Data Center Campus on Former Kentucky Uranium Site

NextEra Energy and Brookfield plan to invest about $100 billion to develop a data center campus on a former uranium enrichment site in Paducah, Kentucky. NextEra will build and own dedicated power facilities including 2 gigawatts of gas generation and up to 2.6 gigawatts of battery storage, while Brookfield will own and operate the 1.8-gigawatt data center campus. The project aligns with the Trump administration's policy requiring data center operators to pay above-market electricity rates. It still requires final binding agreements.

Effective: +13
Intensity: 60
Confidence: 65%
Horizon: Long term