Energy · 1.4

Refining & Petrochemicals

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 60-day window.

Average net impact+20weighted per event

Average gross impact33absolute weighted average

Events7same period

Confidence78%model average

Raw intensity62before weighting

Previous period0net impact

Gross changeInsufficient base

Diffusion speed0.1 / day

Concentration16%

Direction disagreement39%

Source independence100%11 sources

IMPACT TREND

60-day effective impact

Positive 6 · Negative 1 · Mixed 0

+290-29

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29 Jun0 events

4 Jul0 events

9 Jul0 events

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19 Jul0 events

24 Jul4 events

+29

29 Jul3 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate0%0 cumulative effective impact

Short term59%135 cumulative effective impact

Medium term41%95 cumulative effective impact

Long term0%0 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 1 of 1 · 7 events

Macro4

Macro31 Jul, 15:00positive

China's Tenth Fuel Price Hike in 2026: Gasoline and Diesel Up 685 Yuan and 655 Yuan per Tonne

China's National Development and Reform Commission announced the tenth fuel price increase of 2026, raising gasoline and diesel prices by RMB 685 and RMB 655 per tonne respectively from July 31. Nationally, 92 RON gasoline, 95 RON gasoline, and 0# diesel rise by RMB 0.54, RMB 0.57, and RMB 0.56 per liter. Filling a 50-liter tank of 92 RON gasoline costs an extra RMB 27. The adjustment follows volatile international crude prices amid Middle East tensions.

Effective: +31
Intensity: 60
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Macro28 Jul, 04:07positive

US Sold Over $130 Billion of Venezuelan Oil After Maduro's Capture

US President Donald Trump said in July 2026 that the United States had sold over $130 billion of Venezuelan oil since capturing former President Nicolas Maduro in January 2026. The proceeds were used to operate Venezuela and cover war costs, with the US retaining the government and cooperating with acting President Delcy Rodríguez. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported sales of 150 million barrels, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed audits by KPMG and funds held at Citibank. Democrats continued to demand full disclosure.

Effective: +28
Intensity: 55
Confidence: 70%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro28 Jul, 16:05positive

China to Exempt Energy Lands from Urban Land Use Tax from 2026, Phase Out Previous Reductions

China's Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration have adjusted urban land use tax rules for energy and resource enterprises. From September 1, 2026, certain lands used by oil, gas, coal, power, and mining enterprises will be exempt from the tax. Concurrently, from September 1, 2026 to August 31, 2027, lands that previously qualified for tax reductions will be taxed at half the due amount, and from September 1, 2027, full tax will apply, with the old reduction rules being abolished.

Effective: +23
Intensity: 50
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 17:38positive

China's July crude imports rebound to 7.8 million bpd, Saudi and UAE shipments surge

China's daily crude oil imports rebounded to about 7.8 million barrels in July from a more than 10-year low of 6.2 million barrels in November 2015. Saudi Arabia's shipments more than doubled, UAE's surged tenfold, and Russia's rose 10%. The rebound followed a temporary US-Iran ceasefire last month, but renewed fighting has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Before the full outbreak of the US-Iran conflict on February 28, China's total imports were 12.6 million barrels per day, including 1 million via pipeline.

Effective: +22
Intensity: 60
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Industries1

Industries28 Jul, 19:42negative

2026 Fortune Global 500 Energy Rankings Slide, Saudi Aramco Profit Surpassed by Alphabet, China Oil Majors

The 2026 Fortune Global 500 list, released July 28, showed energy companies declining in the top 20 by revenue. Saudi Aramco ranked fifth, down one place, with 2025 revenue of $445.53 billion (down 7.2%) and net profit of $92.79 billion (down 11.6%), losing its four-year title as the world's most profitable company to Alphabet, whose profit rose 32% to $132.17 billion. China's three oil majors all slid: CNPC to 10th, Sinopec to 12th, and CNOOC to 83rd, each reporting lower revenue and profit.

Effective: -44
Intensity: 78
Confidence: 88%
Horizon: Medium term

Companies2

Companies31 Jul, 19:12positive

Middle East Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Boosts Exxon and Chevron Second-Quarter 2026 Earnings

Exxon Mobil and Chevron reported sharp gains in second-quarter 2026 profit on July 31, lifted by higher international oil prices from the Middle East conflict. Exxon posted earnings of $14.525 billion, while Chevron earned $12.072 billion. Sales rose 42% at Exxon to $116.017 billion and 56% at Chevron to $70.055 billion. Brent crude averaged $96.68 a barrel, up 23% from the prior quarter, and US crude rose 27% quarter on quarter.

Effective: +48
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Short term

Companies30 Jul, 20:11positive

Shell Posts $9.84 Billion Q2 2026 Net Profit, Second Highest on Record, as Energy Prices and Trading Surge

Shell reported a second-quarter 2026 net profit of $9.84 billion, more than double the year-earlier figure and the second highest in its history, driven by higher crude oil and natural gas prices, strong LNG and oil trading results, and improved chemical margins. Brent crude averaged $97 per barrel and European benchmark gas averaged €46 per megawatt-hour, both sharply higher than in Q2 2025. Operating cash flow, including working capital changes, also hit its highest level since 2022. Shell plans to continue its $3 billion share buyback program over the next three months.

Effective: +21
Intensity: 50
Confidence: 65%
Horizon: Short term