Technology · 10.1

Semiconductor Value Chain

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 200-day window.

Average net impact+29weighted per event

Average gross impact34absolute weighted average

Events156same period

Confidence76%model average

Raw intensity64before weighting

Previous period0net impact

Gross changeInsufficient base

Diffusion speed0.8 / day

Concentration1%

Direction disagreement15%

Source independence99%28 sources

IMPACT TREND

200-day effective impact

Positive 121 · Negative 11 · Mixed 24

+290-29

12 Jan0 events

29 Jan0 events

15 Feb0 events

3 Mar0 events

20 Mar0 events

6 Apr0 events

22 Apr0 events

9 May0 events

26 May0 events

11 Jun0 events

28 Jun0 events

+29

15 Jul156 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate3%140 cumulative effective impact

Short term30%1595 cumulative effective impact

Medium term52%2794 cumulative effective impact

Long term15%816 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 3 of 15 · 147 events

Macro5

Macro27 Jul, 10:52positive

Guangzhou H1 2025 GDP Rises 5.8% to 1.6045T Yuan; IC Manufacturing VA Up 73.9%, NEV Output Up 53.2%

Guangzhou's GDP grew 5.8% year on year in the first half of 2025 to 1.6045 trillion yuan, the fastest half-year expansion since 2022. Industrial production was the main driver, with integrated circuit manufacturing value-added surging 73.9% and new energy vehicle output rising 53.2%. Fixed-asset investment grew 6.1%, with industrial investment surpassing 100 billion yuan for the first time.

Effective: +60
Intensity: 88
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Short term

Macro31 Jul, 10:32positive

15th Five-Year Plan Computing Power Network to See 4 Trillion Yuan in New Direct Investment, Huge Potential

NDRC spokesperson Jiang Yi said on July 31 that institutions estimate the 15th Five-Year Plan period will bring RMB 4 trillion in new direct investment for computing power network construction. As corporate investment dominates, this creates significant opportunities for private capital. The NDRC will enhance planning and factor guarantees to foster a favorable environment for private investment.

Effective: +58
Intensity: 85
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Long term

Macro29 Jul, 06:47positive

China's H1 2026 Tax Revenue Tops 10 Trillion Yuan, Innovation and Manufacturing Tax Cuts 1.91 Trillion

In the first half of 2026, China's total tax and fee revenue reached 16.7 trillion yuan, with tax revenue (excluding customs-levied import taxes and before deducting export rebates) exceeding 10 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year. Tax cuts, fee reductions, and rebates supporting technological innovation and manufacturing totaled 1.91 trillion yuan. The PPI rose 1.5% year-on-year, and the number of active business entities increased 20.2%.

Effective: +57
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro29 Jul, 06:52positive

H1 2026 new infrastructure steady push: core industry output 2.98 trillion yuan, smart computing surges 177%

China’s new infrastructure buildout advanced steadily in the first half of 2026, with the core industry scale hitting 2.98 trillion yuan. Smart computing power reached 2,185 EFLOPS, surging 177% year-on-year, and 5G base stations exceeded 5.05 million. Technology-focused lending expanded, with loans to tech SMEs up 20.1% to 4.15 trillion yuan. A-share new-infrastructure-related financing surpassed 48 billion yuan, an 8.5-fold increase, while 169 listed companies in core new-infrastructure tracks reported combined H1 net profit of nearly 96.2 billion yuan, up over 59%. Low-orbit broadband constellations began regular launches, a 6G trial spectrum was granted, and 5G-Advanced networks covered 330 cities.

Effective: +55
Intensity: 78
Confidence: 82%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro28 Jul, 11:00positive

H1 Innovation and Manufacturing Tax Relief Hits 1.91 Trillion Yuan, R&D Cuts at 659.6 Billion

China delivered tax and fee reductions and refunds totaling 1.91 trillion yuan in the first half of the year under policies supporting technological innovation and manufacturing. The R&D expenses super-deduction policy contributed 659.6 billion yuan in cuts. A reduced 15% corporate income tax rate for high-tech enterprises trimmed about 252 billion yuan, and value-added tax super-deduction for advanced manufacturing cut nearly 1 trillion yuan.

Effective: +55
Intensity: 73
Confidence: 88%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries2

Industries31 Jul, 15:41positive

US tech giants ramp up AI infrastructure spending in July, annual capex plans near $800 billion

In July, major US tech companies rolled out full-year capital expenditure plans totaling close to $800 billion, directing funds toward AI servers, data centers, proprietary chips and memory capacity. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index initially dropped 11% in one week, with nearly 70% of semiconductor names down over 20% from their highs, before a late-month earnings-driven rebound lifted the index 8.19% in a single session. Alphabet raised its annual capex to $195–205 billion, Microsoft kept its $190 billion plan and Meta lifted its range to $130–145 billion. Intel raised its full-year spending to $20 billion and Tesla reaffirmed more than $25 billion in capex. Memory chip makers and other semiconductor firms secured large cloud orders, driving sharp rallies; SanDisk surged nearly 26% in one day.

Effective: +58
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Industries28 Jul, 04:49positive

SoftBank Building AI Data Center in US; OpenAI Eyes Tenancy, Seeks $250 billion Nvidia Credit Guarantee

SoftBank Group is constructing an AI-focused data center in the US, and OpenAI is considering moving in. OpenAI is in talks with Nvidia to secure roughly $250 billion in credit guarantees that would underpin a lease agreement. The guarantee would cover lease costs and debt for facility construction, potentially easing access to financial institution funding for the unprofitable, privately held AI company. SoftBank announced in March that construction of the large-scale data center would begin this year in Ohio, as part of a $500 billion joint US-Japan project.

Effective: +56
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Companies3

Companies27 Jul, 19:09positive

Nvidia Launches 102.4T Ethernet Switch Spectrum-6 for Vera Rubin, Cuts Switch Count 40%

Nvidia has launched the Spectrum-6 Ethernet switch with 102.4T capacity, designed for its Vera Rubin platform and forming the core of the next-generation Spectrum-X Ethernet platform. The switch doubles network bandwidth over the previous generation and is adopted by CoreWeave, Microsoft, Nebius, SpaceX AI, and Tesla for AI factory infrastructure. Compared with traditional Ethernet, Spectrum-X delivers 1.6x AI network performance, maintains up to 95% network efficiency at deployments exceeding 100,000 GPUs, and reduces the number of required switches by 40% through hardware-accelerated multi-plane topology. Silicon photonics technology improves energy efficiency by 5x and mean time between failures by 10x.

Effective: +60
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Short term

Companies28 Jul, 08:34positive

Nvidia and SK Group Announce Cooperation; Business Ties Exceed $500 Billion

Nvidia said on Friday that it has entered into a cooperation with South Korea’s SK Group, disclosing that the volume of business transactions between the two parties now exceeds $500 billion. The announcement, which came in a brief statement, did not provide specifics on the nature of the cooperation. The staggering figure underscores the deep commercial relationship that has already developed.

Effective: +58
Intensity: 85
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Companies28 Jul, 00:15positive

ChangXin Technology Soars 465.82% on STAR Market Debut, Five Bank Wealth Managers Net 183 Million Yuan

ChangXin Technology debuted on the STAR Market on July 27 at an issue price of 8.66 yuan, closing at 49 yuan for a 465.82% gain and a market capitalization of approximately 3.28 trillion yuan. Five bank wealth management companies—Ningyin, Xingyin, Zhongyou, Nanyin, and Minsheng—participated in the offline subscription, with 29 products allocated 4.544 million shares. Based on the closing price, the paper profit totaled about 1.83 billion yuan, of which Ningyin contributed roughly 1 billion yuan from 19 products. Approximately 70% of the allocated shares are under lock-up, while unrestricted shares of about 1.298 million shares generated a paper profit of 52.35 million yuan.

Effective: +56
Intensity: 82
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Short term