Financials · 14.1

State-owned Banks

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 200-day window.

Average net impact+11weighted per event

Average gross impact13absolute weighted average

Events16same period

Confidence75%model average

Raw intensity47before weighting

Previous period0net impact

Gross changeInsufficient base

Diffusion speed0.1 / day

Concentration14%

Direction disagreement11%

Source independence93%10 sources

IMPACT TREND

200-day effective impact

Positive 7 · Negative 1 · Mixed 8

+110-11

16 Jan0 events

1 Feb0 events

18 Feb0 events

7 Mar0 events

23 Mar0 events

9 Apr0 events

26 Apr0 events

12 May0 events

29 May0 events

15 Jun0 events

1 Jul0 events

+11

18 Jul16 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate0%0 cumulative effective impact

Short term74%151 cumulative effective impact

Medium term26%52 cumulative effective impact

Long term0%0 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 1 of 2 · 16 events

Macro6

Macro27 Jul, 08:00positive

China's Service Sector Value Added Up 5.2% in H1, State Council Issues Capacity Expansion and Quality

China's service sector value added reached 41.4 trillion yuan in the first half of 2024, up 5.2% year-on-year, outpacing overall economic growth by 0.5 percentage points and accounting for 59.5% of GDP. The sector contributed 66.1% to economic growth, with Q2 alone contributing 69.4%. Sub-sectors such as information technology and leasing services grew strongly. The State Council issued an opinion in April to expand capacity and improve quality. Service trade deficit narrowed about 20%, and foreign capital in services accounted for 72% of total.

Effective: +37
Intensity: 65
Confidence: 78%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 18:44positive

100-Day Countdown to 9th CIIE: ICBC Unveils Full Financial Solutions, 100 Overseas Roadshows in 40+ Countries

As the 100-day countdown to the 9th China International Import Expo (CIIE) began on July 27, ICBC, a full partner, released comprehensive financial solutions for the event. The bank has held 100 overseas roadshows in over 40 countries across six continents, leveraging its 410 overseas institutions in 69 countries. Services include multi-currency accounts, cross-border settlements, trade finance, and digital payment solutions for exhibitors, buyers, and individual customers. ICBC will also host the China-Europe Business Conference and a sub-forum of the Hongqiao International Economic Forum during the expo.

Effective: +23
Intensity: 50
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Macro27 Jul, 14:58positive

Three DR-Based Loans Issued by ICBC, CMB, SPD Bank in Hainan Free Trade Port

On July 20, three loans using the deposit institution bond repo rate (DR) as the pricing benchmark were issued in the Hainan Free Trade Port. The loans were granted by the Hainan branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Haikou branch of China Merchants Bank, and the Haikou branch of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, targeting different enterprise types, account types, and interest rate models. DR is a market-based rate derived from interbank pledged repo transactions, reflecting liquidity conditions in the banking system. Using DR as a loan pricing benchmark aligns loan rates more directly with market funding costs rather than solely following the Loan Prime Rate (LPR).

Effective: +14
Intensity: 35
Confidence: 60%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 11:31negative

ICBC Jiangxi Branch and Sub-branch Fined 1.5 Million RMB for Wealth Management Violations; Four Individuals

The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) Jiangxi Bureau fined Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Jiangxi Branch and its Nanchang Beijing West Road Sub-branch a total of 1.5 million RMB for illegal wealth management business and inadequate internal controls. The branch was fined 250,000 RMB, the sub-branch 1.25 million RMB. Two individuals, Peng Dawu and Li Jing, were warned and fined a combined 100,000 RMB. Two others, Lei Lei and Liu Jing, received warnings.

Effective: -12
Intensity: 30
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Short term

Macro28 Jul, 17:05mixed

RMB Real Estate Loan Balance Falls 4.9% in First Half of 2026, Down 1.23 Trillion Yuan

As of end-June 2026, RMB real estate loans outstanding stood at 50.74 trillion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, with a net reduction of 1.23 trillion yuan in the first half. Development loans fell 8.5% to 12.65 trillion yuan, decreasing by 540.2 billion yuan, while personal housing loans dropped 3.8% to 36.29 trillion yuan, down 716.3 billion yuan.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 50
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Short term

Macro27 Jul, 18:36mixed

2026: Hang Seng Bank Offers 4% on One-Month USD Deposit; State Banks at 2.8%

Competition for US dollar deposits among Chinese banks is intensifying. Hang Seng Bank (China) is offering a limited-time promotion in July 2026, with new customers earning up to 4% annualized on one-month deposits. East Asia Bank offers rates of 3.4% for three months and 3.55% for six months on deposits of US$50,000 or more. Nanjing Bank offers 3.42% on one-year deposits of US$200,000. Large state-owned banks offer around 2.8% for one-year deposits. The yuan has appreciated over 3% this year and over 5% in the past year.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 40
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Industries3

Industries3 Aug, 19:54positive

2026 Commercial Bank Interbank Deposit Certificate Quota Drops to RMB 30.3 Trillion, Reversing Growth Trend

Quotas for 318 commercial banks' interbank deposit certificates totalled RMB 30.3 trillion in 2026, down RMB 1.6 trillion or 5% from 2025, reversing a sustained growth trend. The filing was delayed until July, reflecting weak real-economy financing demand and an asset shortage as deposit growth outpaced loan growth. RMB loan growth hit a record low of 5.2% in June 2026. Adjustments were uneven: Industrial Bank cut its quota by RMB 600 billion, while Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank raised theirs.

Effective: +35
Intensity: 55
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Short term

Industries28 Jul, 15:15positive

Bank Wealth Management Market Reaches RMB 33.66 Trillion in First Half of 2026, Up 9.75% Year-on-Year

As of end-June 2026, the bank wealth management market had RMB 33.66 trillion in outstanding products, up 1.11% from the start of the year and 9.75% year-on-year. There were 51,200 products, up 10.58% from the start. New products raised RMB 39.21 trillion. Investors earned RMB 305.2 billion, with an average annualized return of 2.05%. Wealth management subsidiaries held 92.63% of the market, with their scale up 13.46% year-on-year.

Effective: +34
Intensity: 60
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Short term

Industries28 Jul, 07:12positive

Listed Banks Prioritize Asset-Liability Management and Diversified Income for H2 2026

Several listed Chinese banks have concluded their mid-year work meetings, setting key priorities for the second half of 2026. The banks will strengthen asset-liability management and enhance diversified income as core strategies. They also aim to improve service to the real economy, accelerate digital-intelligent transformation, and reinforce risk prevention and control.

Effective: +20
Intensity: 50
Confidence: 70%
Horizon: Short term

Companies1

Companies28 Jul, 23:49positive

ICBC, BoCom, CCB Issue 160 Billion Yuan in Subordinated Bonds; ICBC and BOC Complete 50 Billion Yuan in

Since July, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Bank of Communications (BoCom) and China Construction Bank (CCB) have issued 160 billion yuan in new tier-2 capital bonds. Additionally, ICBC and Bank of China (BOC) completed 50 billion yuan in perpetual bonds this month. The bonds carry coupon rates of 1.88% to 1.91% and are used to replenish capital. Total bank issuance of tier-2 and perpetual bonds this year has reached about 1.23 trillion yuan, with large banks accounting for over 67% of the volume.

Effective: +28
Intensity: 60
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term