Mining & Resources · 2.3

Base Metals

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 200-day window.

Average net impact+27weighted per event

Average gross impact34absolute weighted average

Events23same period

Confidence79%model average

Raw intensity63before weighting

Previous period0net impact

Gross changeInsufficient base

Diffusion speed0.1 / day

Concentration6%

Direction disagreement20%

Source independence99%19 sources

IMPACT TREND

200-day effective impact

Positive 19 · Negative 3 · Mixed 1

+270-27

16 Jan0 events

1 Feb0 events

18 Feb0 events

7 Mar0 events

23 Mar0 events

9 Apr0 events

26 Apr0 events

12 May0 events

29 May0 events

+16

15 Jun1 event

1 Jul0 events

+27

18 Jul22 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate0%0 cumulative effective impact

Short term66%517 cumulative effective impact

Medium term32%250 cumulative effective impact

Long term2%19 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 1 of 3 · 22 events

Macro6

Macro3 Aug, 08:00positive

New Growth Drivers Contribute Over 40% to China's H1 2026 Growth; High-Tech Manufacturing Output Up 13.3%

Preliminary data show new growth drivers, including high-end manufacturing, the digital and intelligent economy, and modern services, contributed more than 40% of China's economic growth in the first half of 2026. Industrial value added above designated size rose 5.4% year on year, while high-tech manufacturing grew 13.3%. Industrial profits totaled RMB 3,947.99 billion in January–June, up 18.7%. Output of 3D printing equipment rose 48.5%, lithium batteries 39.3%, and industrial robots 28.0%. Fostering new growth drivers was made a key 2026 task.

Effective: +69
Intensity: 90
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Short term

Macro27 Jul, 09:36positive

Industrial Firms' Profits Rise 18.7% in H1, Driven by Electronics and Nonferrous Metals

In the first half of the year, profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises totaled RMB 3,947.99 billion, up 18.7% year on year, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points from the first quarter. Operating revenue grew 6.5%, and the operating profit margin reached 5.7%, the highest cumulative level since the start of 2024. The electronics sector posted a 96.9% profit surge, contributing 8.5 percentage points to overall growth, while the nonferrous metals sector rose 99.4%, contributing 4.7 percentage points. Mining and manufacturing profits also expanded, but utilities declined. The data reflect the rapid growth of new drivers such as AI-related computing demand.

Effective: +62
Intensity: 88
Confidence: 95%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 09:38positive

Profits of China's Industrial Firms Up 18.7% in First Half 2026, Electronics Sector Surges 96.9%

China's industrial enterprises above designated size posted a 18.7% year-on-year profit growth in the first half of 2026, totaling 3.94799 trillion yuan. The pace accelerated 3.2 percentage points from the first quarter. The electronics sector led with a 96.9% surge, driven by AI and computing demand, contributing 8.5 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth. Revenue rose 6.5% and the profit margin improved to 5.70%.

Effective: +58
Intensity: 85
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro31 Jul, 22:52positive

Shanghai SASAC Promotes Bulk Commodity Trade Development, Guomao Holdings Signs Agreements with SAIC and

Shanghai SASAC held a meeting on July 31 to accelerate high-quality development of bulk commodity trade and build an international trading and investment platform. The meeting emphasized strategic positioning, ecological cooperation, and regulatory services. Guomao Holdings, a municipal state-owned enterprise with 13 billion yuan registered capital established in November 2025, signed framework agreements with SAIC Motor, Shanghai Electric, Shenergy Group, and Shanghai International Port Group to deepen collaboration and build a bulk commodity industrial ecosystem.

Effective: +43
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 08:49negative

US Section 122 of Trade Act of 1974 Expires; Replacement Tariffs Push Effective Rate to 11.8%, China to 27.2%

The US Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 expired on July 24, 2026, prompting replacement tariffs under Sections 301, 232, and 338. New Section 301 forced-labor tariffs impose 12.5% and 10% additional duties on 60 and 14 economies respectively, covering over 99% of US imports. A separate Section 301 investigation on Brazil resulted in a 25% tariff on most Brazilian goods. Section 232 tariffs cover steel, aluminum, and other sectors. Section 338 was first used on July 20, imposing a 50% punitive tariff on Canadian imports of cars, parts, alcohol, clothing, and furniture. The US weighted average effective tariff rate fell to 8.3% after Section 122 expiry, then rose to 11.8% after new tariffs. China's average rate rose from 25.9% to 27.2%, and Canada's from 5.3% to 7.8%.

Effective: -42
Intensity: 65
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Macro27 Jun, 09:30positive

China Jan-May Profits Up 18.8% to 3.14 Trillion Yuan; Nonferrous, Electronics Double; Auto, Steel Down

Profits of China's industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 3.14 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2026, up 18.8% year-on-year, with the revenue profit margin improving to 5.56%. State-controlled and joint-stock firms led growth, while private enterprises also gained. Profits in the nonferrous metals and electronics sectors more than doubled, whereas automobile and steel profits fell sharply. The asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises stood at 58.2% at end-May.

Effective: +37
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Industries2

Industries30 Jul, 23:16positive

China H1 nonferrous metals output 41.513m tonnes; profit up 94% as AI spurs tin, tantalum, indium price surges

In the first half of 2026, China's output of ten nonferrous metals rose 3.3% year-on-year to 41.513 million tonnes, while profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the sector jumped 94% to RMB418.39 billion. AI computing infrastructure expansion spurred sharp gains in tin, tantalum and indium, with tin up 40%, tantalum soaring 158% and indium climbing 60%. Copper demand from AI and data centres kept copper prices elevated; global data centre copper consumption is forecast to reach 1.3 million tonnes by 2028. Industry surveys indicate AI servers use three times the tin of conventional units. Leading Chinese tin producers are building closed-loop recycling to boost secondary supply.

Effective: +71
Intensity: 92
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Short term

Industries29 Jul, 20:09positive

China's Non-Ferrous Metals Output 41.5 Million Tonnes in H1 2026, Revenue RMB5.77 Trillion, Profit Up 94%

In the first half of 2026, building on the first quarter, China's non-ferrous metals industry achieved steady production growth. Output of ten non-ferrous metals totaled 41.513 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. For 12,362 enterprises above designated size, combined revenue reached RMB5,769.68 billion, up 21.7%, and total profit hit RMB418.39 billion, surging 94% year-on-year.

Effective: +63
Intensity: 85
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Short term

Companies2

Companies27 Jul, 16:51positive

Shenhuo 2026 H1 Revenue Rises 21.35%, Net Profit Jumps 151.06%, EPS RMB 2.16

Shenhuo Co. , Ltd. reported its 2026 half-year results on July 27, showing revenue of RMB 24.79 billion, up 21.35% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders surged 151.06% to RMB 4.78 billion, with basic earnings per share of RMB 2.16. The company attributed the performance to higher selling prices for coal and electrolytic aluminum, while the cost of key raw material alumina declined.

Effective: +42
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Short term

Companies29 Jul, 21:39positive

Multiple Companies Release H1 2026 Results: Western Mining Net Profit Up 123%, Kaimeite Gas Down 60.75%

Several Chinese companies reported first-half 2026 earnings. Western Mining posted net profit of RMB 4.169 billion, up 123% year-on-year, while Kaimeite Gas saw net profit fall 60.75% to RMB 21.92 million. Other firms including Shengtun Mining, Mebon Bond, Lujiazui, Hongfa Technology, Zhongke Environmental, Hanbell Precise Machinery, and Fuman Microelectronics also disclosed results, with most showing growth.

Effective: +39
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Short term