Manufacturing · 6.8

Construction Machinery

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 200-day window.

Average net impact+33weighted per event

Average gross impact38absolute weighted average

Events8same period

Confidence74%model average

Raw intensity61before weighting

Previous period0net impact

Gross changeInsufficient base

Diffusion speed0.0 / day

Concentration15%

Direction disagreement13%

Source independence94%8 sources

IMPACT TREND

200-day effective impact

Positive 6 · Negative 1 · Mixed 1

+330-33

16 Jan0 events

1 Feb0 events

18 Feb0 events

7 Mar0 events

23 Mar0 events

9 Apr0 events

26 Apr0 events

12 May0 events

29 May0 events

15 Jun0 events

1 Jul0 events

+33

18 Jul8 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate0%0 cumulative effective impact

Short term65%196 cumulative effective impact

Medium term35%104 cumulative effective impact

Long term0%0 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 1 of 1 · 8 events

Macro8

Macro3 Aug, 08:00positive

China starts 25 major water projects in H1 2026; investment hits RMB515.1 billion

In the first half of 2026, China launched 25 major water conservancy projects, including the Three Gorges New Waterway and Liaodong Peninsula water allocation scheme, while completed water conservancy investment reached RMB515.1 billion. The national water network now covers 80.3% of the country's land area, with 35 of 40 planned backbone channels and 473 of 588 key storage nodes built or under construction. Annual investment has exceeded RMB1 trillion for four consecutive years since 2022. Flood control, irrigation and regional water supply projects advanced, with 387 million mu of farmland drained during flood season. Irrigated land contributed 88.11% of summer grain output.

Effective: +60
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 88%
Horizon: Short term

Macro30 Jul, 14:48positive

Politburo Pledges Proactive Fiscal and Moderate Monetary Easing to Accelerate Economic Transition

The Politburo met on July 30 to set H2 economic policy, calling for more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to accelerate the shift from old to new growth drivers. China's Q2 GDP grew 4.3% in real terms and 5.9% nominally, with the GDP deflator turning positive after 12 quarters. First-half general public budget expenditure reached RMB 14.33 trillion, up 1.5% year-on-year. Export growth in the first half stood at 17.6% in dollar terms, exceeding the 5.5% pace in 2025.

Effective: +51
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 82%
Horizon: Short term

Macro30 Jul, 17:24positive

China Politburo lays out H2 agenda: speed fiscal spending, bond use; push 'two major, two new' programs

The Politburo met on July 30 to set second-half priorities, calling for faster fiscal spending and bond deployment, advancement of "two major" national projects and "two new" equipment renewal and trade-in programs, and firm protection of the grassroots "three guarantees" (basic living, wage payments and government operations). Monetary policy will be used flexibly while fiscal-financial coordination is optimised to drive domestic demand. In H1, general public budget expenditure rose 1.5% to RMB14.33 trillion, boosted by 10.8% growth in healthcare and 7.6% in social security. The 2026 proactive fiscal stance includes RMB1.3 trillion in ultra-long special bonds, of which RMB572 billion has been issued. Basic pension subsidies reached RMB1.2 trillion and medical insurance subsidies RMB386.4 billion. A new RMB100 billion six-policy package combining fiscal interest subsidies drove more than RMB17 trillion in related lending and supported approximately RMB1.31 trillion in consumer spending, delivering 99 million person-times of subsidy benefits.

Effective: +49
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Macro3 Aug, 17:02positive

Local Government Bond Issuance Reaches RMB 6.61 Trillion in First Seven Months of 2026, New Special Bonds Lag

As of August 2, 2026, local government bond issuance totaled approximately RMB 6.61 trillion, including RMB 2.41 trillion of new special bonds. This represents 55% of the annual quota of RMB 4.4 trillion, below the 63.1% pace in the same period of 2025. Guangdong led with RMB 287.025 billion, followed by six other provinces. The Politburo has urged faster use of fiscal funds and bond proceeds.

Effective: +45
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 07:00positive

Infrastructure Leading Indicators Recover as ‘Six Networks’ and Bond Disbursement Accelerate

Multiple leading indicators for infrastructure investment in China show signs of recovery, with local governments rapidly advancing major projects across the ‘six networks’ covering transport, energy, and water. Accelerated disbursement of ultra-long-term special government bonds is building momentum for stable investment. Analysts expect infrastructure investment growth to stabilize and rebound in the second half of the year, providing strong support for overall fixed-asset investment.

Effective: +37
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Short term

Macro31 Jul, 10:07positive

China's Trade with BRI Partners Hits RMB 12.97 Trillion in H1 2026, Up 14.8%

China's National Development and Reform Commission reported that in the first half of 2026, goods trade with Belt and Road partner countries reached RMB 12.97 trillion, up 14.8% year on year, accounting for 50.9% of total foreign trade. Investment cooperation expanded into high-tech and green sectors. Infrastructure projects advanced, including the Hungary-Serbia Railway's freight service launch, full construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, and 11,186 China-Europe freight train trips, a 20.2% increase.

Effective: +37
Intensity: 60
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro27 Jul, 22:46negative

28 Provinces Report Fiscal Self-Sufficiency Below 100% in Q1 2026; Zhejiang Leads at 96.1%

In the first quarter of 2026, all 28 provinces that disclosed their fiscal data had fiscal self-sufficiency rates below 100%. Zhejiang led at 96.1%, while six coastal provinces exceeded 70% and half of the provinces fell below 50%, with Tibet at 13.8%. The Ministry of Finance noted that local fiscal self-sufficiency typically falls short of 100% and that central transfer payments of 9.4 trillion yuan in the first half of 2026, or 90.3% of the annual budget, help maintain balance.

Effective: -19
Intensity: 45
Confidence: 65%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro30 Jul, 16:59neutral

August Local Bond Issuance Plan Hits 1.091 Trillion Yuan, New Monthly High Since 2026

The August local government bond issuance plan has been disclosed at RMB 1.091 trillion, the highest monthly figure since 2026, surpassing March's RMB 981.5 billion. New special bonds account for RMB 586.1 billion, over half of new bond issuance. The pace of issuance remains slower than the same period in 2024, but the increased supply of new special bonds is expected to support economic stability. Sichuan, Guangdong, and Shandong each plan over RMB 100 billion in issuance.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 25
Confidence: 50%
Horizon: Short term

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