Construction & Real Estate · 7.1

Residential Development

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 200-day window.

Average net impact+15weighted per event

Average gross impact20absolute weighted average

Events33same period

Confidence75%model average

Raw intensity52before weighting

Previous period0net impact

Gross changeInsufficient base

Diffusion speed0.2 / day

Concentration6%

Direction disagreement27%

Source independence98%14 sources

IMPACT TREND

200-day effective impact

Positive 20 · Negative 3 · Mixed 10

+150-15

12 Jan0 events

29 Jan0 events

15 Feb0 events

3 Mar0 events

20 Mar0 events

6 Apr0 events

22 Apr0 events

9 May0 events

26 May0 events

11 Jun0 events

28 Jun0 events

+15

15 Jul33 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate7%44 cumulative effective impact

Short term57%374 cumulative effective impact

Medium term27%180 cumulative effective impact

Long term9%60 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 3 of 4 · 33 events

Macro1

Macro31 Jul, 17:14mixed

HKMA Reports New Mortgage Loans Rose 25.8% MoM to HK$50.6 Billion in June 2026; New Loan Applications Up 12.5%

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported that new mortgage loan applications rose 12.5% month-on-month to 12,117 cases in June 2026. New mortgage loans approved increased 25.8% to HK$50.6 billion, driven by gains across primary, secondary, and refinancing markets. New drawdowns rose 17.6% to HK$27.7 billion. The delinquency ratio remained low at 0.11%.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 50
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries4

Industries31 Jul, 19:39mixed

China Index Academy: Top 100 Developers' Jan-Jul 2026 Sales Total 1.80 Trillion Yuan, Decline Narrows for

China Index Academy reported that total sales of the top 100 developers from January to July 2026 reached 1,804.21 billion yuan. The year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points from the January-June period, marking the fifth consecutive month of narrowing. Five developers achieved sales of over 100 billion yuan, unchanged from the same period in 2025, while 39 developers surpassed 10 billion yuan, down by 10 from a year earlier. Companies including China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, China Jinmao, and Beijing Urban Construction recorded year-on-year sales growth.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 60
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries31 Jul, 09:32mixed

Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou Land Auctions Top RMB 30 Billion in One Day

In late July 2026, core land parcels in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou were auctioned intensively. On July 28 alone, three cities' prime plots fetched over RMB 30 billion, led by Shanghai's Yangpu Badatou site at RMB 16.12 billion after 219 bidding rounds. The auctions underscore developers' focus on top-tier cities amid shrinking investment maps and high premiums.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Industries28 Jul, 15:35mixed

Green City Wins Guangzhou Liwan Land Plot for RMB 1.686 Billion After 50 Bids, Premium 40.97%

Green City won a residential-commercial land plot in Guangzhou's Liwan District after 50 rounds of bidding, paying RMB 1.686 billion, a premium of 40.97% over the starting price of RMB 1.196 billion. The plot has a land area of 17,642.74 square meters and a floor area of 68,810.33 square meters, with a floor area ratio of 3.9. Five developers participated in the auction. The final floor price was RMB 24,501 per square meter.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 65
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Short term

Industries30 Jul, 08:00neutral

2026 World Dairy Conference to Be Held in Hohhot as Local Industry Revenue Tops 300 Billion RMB

The 2026 World Dairy Conference will be held in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia. Hohhot, known as China's dairy capital, has the country's largest and most complete dairy industry cluster. In 2025, the local dairy industry's full-chain revenue exceeded 300 billion RMB. The article highlights the role of innovation, key players Yili and Mengniu, challenges such as low per capita consumption and reliance on imported ingredients, and the need for technological upgrades, product diversification, and collaborative research to strengthen the industry.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 20
Confidence: 40%
Horizon: Long term

Companies5

Companies28 Jul, 18:18positive

Hang Lung Properties Sells Duplex at Peak One for HK$113 Million

Hang Lung Properties has sold a duplex unit at Peak One, a luxury residential project on Stubbs Road, The Peak, for about HK$113 million including a parking space. The 2,337-square-foot unit fetched a price of HK$48,353 per square foot. The sale marks the second transaction at the project in less than half a month. The property had undergone a complete renovation by international design firm HBA, featuring Carrara marble from the Apuan Alps in Italy and mosaic stonework from Greece, Spain and China.

Effective: +9
Intensity: 40
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Companies27 Jul, 19:12negative

Country Garden Affiliate Transfers 1.56% ChangXin Stake for 2B Yuan; ChangXin Lists, Petition Dropped

Country Garden affiliate Huibi No. 5 transferred a 1.56% stake in ChangXin Memory Tech to Hefei Jianchang for 2 billion yuan. ChangXin subsequently listed on the STAR Market in July 2026, ending its first day with a market capitalization exceeding 3.27 trillion yuan. Separately, a Hong Kong court withdrew a winding-up petition against Country Garden. If Country Garden had retained the shares, they would have been worth 44.164 billion yuan at the listing price.

Effective: -7
Intensity: 20
Confidence: 70%
Horizon: Short term

Companies27 Jul, 18:43positive

New World Development and MTR Sell Pavilia Farm III Unit for HK$21.94 Million, Only Three Similar Units Left

New World Development and MTR Corporation have sold a three-bedroom unit at the Pavilia Farm III project in Sha Tin via tender. The unit, with a saleable area of 847 square feet and including one ensuite and a storage room, fetched HK$21.937 million, or HK$25,900 per square foot. Only three units of this type remain. Since the relaunch, the Pavilia Farm series has sold 390 units, raising over HK$6.4 billion.

Effective: +5
Intensity: 20
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Immediate

Companies30 Jul, 15:28mixed

Country Garden Sold 1.56% CXMT Stake to Hefei State-Owned for RMB 2 Billion, Worth Over RMB 47 Billion After

In December 2024, Country Garden sold its 1.56% stake in memory chip maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) to a Hefei state-owned platform for RMB 2 billion. After CXMT’s IPO on the STAR Market on July 27, 2026, the stake was valued at over RMB 47 billion, approximately 24 times the sale price. The transaction provided immediate liquidity for Country Garden’s housing delivery obligations, while the state-owned buyer assumed long-term industry upside.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 60
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Companies27 Jul, 19:33mixed

Poly Leads Guangzhou H1 2026 Sales at RMB 25.1 Billion; Yuexiu at RMB 21.17 Billion, Wins Three Land Auctions

In H1 2026, Poly Developments led Guangzhou property sales with RMB 25.10 billion, followed by Yuexiu Property at RMB 21.17 billion. The two rivals faced off in four land auctions; Yuexiu won three, including the record RMB 23.6 billion Racecourse plot, and also secured plots in Pazhou and Baiyun with premiums of 46.28% and 16.05%. Yuexiu focused its heavy investment on Guangzhou, while Poly allocated nearly RMB 50 billion nationally. Poly's contracted sales fell 6.93% to RMB 135.11 billion, with area down 11.44%.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term