NDRC Reports 4.7% H1 GDP Growth, Plans More Proactive Fiscal Policy
The National Development and Reform Commission reported to the National People's Congress Standing Committee that China's gross domestic product grew 4.7% year on year in the first half, with an increment of RMB 3.6 trillion, the highest for the period in five years. For the second half, the government will implement more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, and expand domestic demand. Measures include accelerating fiscal spending, supporting emerging consumption such as AI-enabled phones, advancing major projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan, and promoting industrial modernization through the AI+ initiative.
Entrusted by the State Council, Wang Changlin, Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, reported to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on August 25 on the implementation of the national economic and social development plan since 2026. The report stated that gross domestic product grew 4.7% year on year in the first half, with an increment of RMB 3.6 trillion, the highest for the same period in five years.
The report proposed that economic work in the second half should adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, implement more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, fully leverage the effectiveness of existing stock policies, promptly formulate and introduce pragmatic incremental policies, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, intensify efforts to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, effectively safeguard and improve people's livelihoods, promote sustained economic development toward new, superior, and better outcomes, and strive for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
On macro policy implementation, the report noted accelerating fiscal spending and the use of bond funds, vigorously advancing the construction of major national strategies and security capacity and the work on equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-ins, and firmly maintaining the bottom line of the three guarantees at the grassroots level covering basic livelihood, wages, and government operations. It also called for implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, comprehensively using and timely adjusting monetary policy tools, and maintaining basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
On stimulating domestic demand potential, the report proposed formulating an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand, expanding quality supply to meet the consumption needs of different groups, guiding emerging consumption such as AI-enabled phones and agent services, tapping the potential of service consumption, optimizing management policies in areas such as cultural performances, tourism services, and sports events, and further expanding inbound consumption. It also called for accelerating the implementation of major projects identified in the 15th Five-Year Plan, steadily advancing the planning and construction of the six networks, accelerating the disbursement and use of new policy-oriented financial instrument funds, and supporting the expansion of private investment.
On innovation-led modernization of the industrial system, the report noted strengthening long-term stable support for basic research, deeply implementing the AI+ action, developing new forms of the intelligent economy, and improving the AI governance system. It also called for actively promoting breakthroughs in frontier technologies and the development of future industries, focusing on building new pillar industries, and continuing to promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, as well as implementing actions to expand capacity and improve quality in the service sector and formulating action plans to strengthen the construction of national standards for the service industry.
The report stated that it is necessary to fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the various plenary sessions of the 20th Central Committee, consciously accept the supervision and guidance of the National People's Congress and its Standing Committee, fulfill duties with real effort, complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks with high quality, and achieve a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
Why this event matters
The event has a measured impact on 4 industrys. The strongest current signal is positive for Artificial Intelligence, with intensity 80/100 and 75% confidence over a medium term horizon.
Artificial Intelligence
- Direction
- positive
- Intensity
- 80
- Confidence
- 75%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Smartphones
- Direction
- positive
- Intensity
- 70
- Confidence
- 70%
- Horizon
- Medium term
Tourism
- Direction
- positive
- Intensity
- 65
- Confidence
- 70%
- Horizon
- Short term
Film & Entertainment
- Direction
- positive
- Intensity
- 60
- Confidence
- 65%
- Horizon
- Short term
Impact figures are analytical estimates that combine direction, intensity, confidence and event importance. They are not investment advice.