Technology · 10.1

Semiconductor Value Chain

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 20-day window.

Average net impact+24weighted per event

Average gross impact29absolute weighted average

Events151same period

Confidence77%model average

Raw intensity64before weighting

Previous period0net impact

Gross changeInsufficient base

Diffusion speed7.6 / day

Concentration1%

Direction disagreement18%

Source independence97%28 sources

IMPACT TREND

20-day effective impact

Positive 118 · Negative 11 · Mixed 22

+320-32

11 Jul0 events

13 Jul0 events

15 Jul1 event

16 Jul0 events

18 Jul0 events

20 Jul1 event

21 Jul0 events

23 Jul0 events

+21

25 Jul4 events

+24

26 Jul71 events

+17

28 Jul40 events

+32

30 Jul34 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate4%163 cumulative effective impact

Short term35%1527 cumulative effective impact

Medium term48%2063 cumulative effective impact

Long term14%588 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 5 of 15 · 148 events

Macro2

Macro30 Jul, 02:00negative

Federal Reserve Holds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% for Fifth Meeting; FOMC Vote 9-3 with Three Dissents

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, extending a pause that has now lasted five meetings. The Federal Open Market Committee approved the decision by a 9-3 vote, with dissent from Hammack, Kashkari and Logan. The previous meeting had been 12-0. The FOMC statement reiterated that inflation remains elevated, partly due to the impact of shocks.

Effective: -39
Intensity: 65
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Short term

Macro29 Jul, 14:30positive

China Q2 2026 Real GDP Growth 4.3%, Nominal GDP 5.9%, GDP Deflator Turns Positive at 1.5%

China's Q2 2026 macroeconomic data showed real GDP growth of 4.3% year-on-year, down from the first quarter. Nominal GDP growth accelerated to 5.9%, the highest quarterly rate in five years, while the GDP deflator turned positive at about 1.5% for the first time since Q2 2023. Export growth strengthened on resilient external demand and recovering shipments to the US, but fixed asset investment turned negative, consumption remained weak, and the property sector continued to contract.

Effective: +38
Intensity: 72
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries5

Industries28 Jul, 08:39positive

Q2 2026 Mutual Fund Electronics Heavy Holdings Surge 155.46% to RMB 1.58 Trillion, 39.08% of Total, Overweight

In the second quarter of 2026, mutual fund heavy holdings in the electronics sector reached RMB 1,583.888 billion, up 155.46% quarter-on-quarter. The sector accounted for 39.08% of total fund heavy holdings, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.64%, and was overweight by 16.07%. Within the sector, the share of components rose while consumer electronics, semiconductors, other electronic components II, and optoelectronics declined slightly. Since July, the sector has undergone significant adjustments with valuations retreating. Fundamentals show increasing order certainty for semiconductor equipment, rising domestic computing orders and supply chain stocking, AI server demand driving PCB and AI power supply growth, continued memory price increases, and related activities spreading to consumer electronics.

Effective: +40
Intensity: 78
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries28 Jul, 12:45positive

NVIDIA Notifies AIC Partners of Full Price Adjustment for RTX 50 Series, Domestic Prices Rise 15% to 25%

NVIDIA last week notified AIC partners of a comprehensive price adjustment for the RTX 50 series graphics cards, leading to a 15% to 25% price increase across the lineup in China. The adjustment, the first such broad move since 2000, was driven by rising GDDR7 memory costs. Some RTX 5060 Ti non-reference models saw overnight increases of nearly 2,000 yuan.

Effective: +40
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Short term

Industries29 Jul, 00:00positive

Shanghai Aishengna Starts Domestic Immersion DUV Lithography Production, Plans Five Units This Year for SMIC

Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group, a state-backed company, has begun producing domestic immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines. It plans to manufacture about five units this year and 20 next year, delivering them to SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and ChangXin Memory Technologies. The company, founded in August 2023 with over 7 billion RMB in registered capital, is assembling a team from other Chinese firms. However, its DUV machines still require further testing and lag far behind ASML's models, posing no immediate commercial threat. ASML's stock fell 8.3% on July 27.

Effective: +39
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 70%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries30 Jul, 18:29positive

China Internet and Software Revenue Grows Steadily in First Half of 2026, Profit Growth Diverges

In the first half of 2026, China's internet and software sectors posted steady revenue growth but diverging profit trends. Internet business revenue reached 1,067.5 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year, while profit surged 16.6% to 98.99 billion RMB. Software revenue rose 9.5% to 7,718.2 billion RMB, but profit growth slowed to 1.0% at 899.9 billion RMB. Software exports grew 11.4% to 33.79 billion USD. R&D spending in the internet sector increased 14.1% to 59.55 billion RMB.

Effective: +39
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Industries27 Jul, 11:41positive

Chinese Big Tech to Deploy Supernode Solutions at Scale in H2 2026; Huawei, Sugon Launch 1024-Card Products

Chinese large internet companies plan large-scale deployment of supernode solutions in the second half of 2026. Huawei and Sugon have already demonstrated 1024-card products, with Huawei set to deliver 8192-card supernodes by Q4 2026. Over 750 sets of Huawei's 384-card supernode have been deployed across industries. Sugon's 640-card liquid-cooled supernode achieved 90% utilization at a national supercomputing hub. The shift to inference-driven workloads (5:1 to 10:1 ratio) is accelerating adoption, as supernodes deliver 10x performance with only 2x power consumption and 30-50% improvement in PD separation scenarios.

Effective: +38
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Companies3

Companies27 Jul, 12:11positive

Moonshot AI Unveils Kimi K3 Open-Source Model with 2.8 Trillion Parameters, Raises $3.5 Billion in Series F

Moonshot AI released the Kimi K3 model weights and technical report on July 27, 2026, alongside three key infrastructure technologies: MoonEP, FlashKDA and AgentEnv. The 2.8-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts model features native visual understanding and a 1-million-token context window. It achieved top open-source scores on benchmarks including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.1 and Frontend Code Arena, though it remains slightly behind Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. On July 29, the company completed a Series F round of over US$3.5 billion at a US$50 billion pre-money valuation. Rapid adoption followed across Huawei Ascend, Alibaba Cloud and global providers like Nebius and Cursor.

Effective: +41
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 90%
Horizon: Immediate

Companies27 Jul, 21:09positive

SSI and NVIDIA Announce Strategic Partnership and Investment, to Use Next-Gen Vera Rubin Platform

Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI) and NVIDIA announced a long-term strategic partnership on July 27, with NVIDIA investing in SSI. SSI will use NVIDIA's next-generation Vera Rubin platform, which offers an order of magnitude increase in computing power. The companies will also collaborate on advancing NVIDIA's current and future computing platforms. SSI was founded in 2024 by former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever.

Effective: +39
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Short term

Companies28 Jul, 19:23positive

Starchip Technology Forecasts 2026 H1 Net Profit Up 583%-650%, Robot Chip Shipments Top 10 Million

Starchip Technology forecast its 2026 first-half net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 820 million to RMB 900 million, surging 583% to 650% year-on-year, with revenue climbing 87% to 94% to RMB 2.62 billion to RMB 2.72 billion. The company's 2025 robot chip shipments exceeded 10 million units. Starchip, the world's largest visual AI SoC supplier in 2024 with a 26.7% global share and a 41.2% security market share, also acquired a 53.3087% stake in Furui Kun Microelectronics in late 2025. MediaTek remains its largest shareholder with 28.74%.

Effective: +38
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Short term