Technology · 10.1

Semiconductor Value Chain

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 60-day window.

Average net impact+27weighted per event

Average gross impact33absolute weighted average

Events151same period

Confidence77%model average

Raw intensity64before weighting

Previous period0net impact

Gross changeInsufficient base

Diffusion speed2.5 / day

Concentration1%

Direction disagreement17%

Source independence97%28 sources

IMPACT TREND

60-day effective impact

Positive 118 · Negative 11 · Mixed 22

+280-28

1 Jun0 events

6 Jun0 events

11 Jun0 events

16 Jun0 events

21 Jun0 events

26 Jun0 events

1 Jul0 events

6 Jul0 events

+16

11 Jul1 event

+10

16 Jul1 event

+28

21 Jul4 events

+27

26 Jul145 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate4%181 cumulative effective impact

Short term34%1708 cumulative effective impact

Medium term48%2391 cumulative effective impact

Long term14%695 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 6 of 15 · 148 events

Macro5

Macro28 Jul, 11:00positive

2026 H1 Tax Revenue Up 4.9%, Tax Cuts Release 1.91 Trillion Yuan, Emerging Sectors Strong

In the first half of 2026, China's tax authorities collected 16.7 trillion yuan in tax and fee revenue, with tax revenue (excluding customs-levied import taxes and export rebates) exceeding 10 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year. Tax cuts and refunds supporting innovation and manufacturing released 1.91 trillion yuan. High-tech industry sales rose 15%, digital economy core industry sales increased 8.7%, and active business entities grew 20.2%. The tax authorities recovered 180.6 billion yuan from tax violations, up 20.8%.

Effective: +44
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Short term

Macro27 Jul, 21:52positive

SASAC Releases Second Batch of High-Value AI Scenarios, Datasets, Open-Source Community 2.0

During the 2026 World AI Conference, China's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) released the second batch of strategic high-value AI scenarios and high-quality industry datasets for central state-owned enterprises. It also launched the AI open-source 'Renew Community' 2.0 and initiated the State-owned Central Enterprise Smart Software Factory Joint Foundation Project. These achievements cover the full chain of open-source ecosystem, scenario deployment, data circulation, and intelligent computing. SASAC stated it will further promote the 'AI+' initiative, accelerate computing infrastructure construction, and foster open collaboration.

Effective: +44
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 78%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro30 Jul, 02:00negative

Federal Reserve Holds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% for Fifth Meeting; FOMC Vote 9-3 with Three Dissents

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, extending a pause that has now lasted five meetings. The Federal Open Market Committee approved the decision by a 9-3 vote, with dissent from Hammack, Kashkari and Logan. The previous meeting had been 12-0. The FOMC statement reiterated that inflation remains elevated, partly due to the impact of shocks.

Effective: -42
Intensity: 65
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Short term

Macro29 Jul, 14:30positive

China Q2 2026 Real GDP Growth 4.3%, Nominal GDP 5.9%, GDP Deflator Turns Positive at 1.5%

China's Q2 2026 macroeconomic data showed real GDP growth of 4.3% year-on-year, down from the first quarter. Nominal GDP growth accelerated to 5.9%, the highest quarterly rate in five years, while the GDP deflator turned positive at about 1.5% for the first time since Q2 2023. Export growth strengthened on resilient external demand and recovering shipments to the US, but fixed asset investment turned negative, consumption remained weak, and the property sector continued to contract.

Effective: +42
Intensity: 72
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro28 Jul, 11:40positive

China's First-Half Tax Revenue Exceeds 10 Trillion Yuan; 15th Five-Year Tax Reform Outlined

The State Council Information Office on July 28 outlined tax reform plans for the 15th Five-Year Plan period. In the first half, total tax and fee collections reached 16.7 trillion yuan, with tax revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year. Social insurance premiums totaled 4.5 trillion yuan and non-tax revenue 1.8 trillion yuan. Individual income tax special additional deductions reduced taxes by over 320 billion yuan, benefiting 126 million people. Tax authorities recovered 180.6 billion yuan from investigating violations, up 20.8%. The electronic tax bureau now covers 85% of smart tax services, reducing processing time by 20%.

Effective: +41
Intensity: 62
Confidence: 82%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries4

Industries27 Jul, 17:57positive

Nvidia Ships Spectrum-X CPO, Broadcom Continues Bailly Shipments; CPO Enters Mass Production

Nvidia has begun shipping its next-generation Spectrum-X co-packaged optics (CPO) switches to select partners. Broadcom continues to ship small volumes of its 51.2T Bailly CPO switches. These developments indicate that CPO technology has officially entered the mass production phase.

Effective: +43
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries27 Jul, 15:25positive

Apacer Says DRAM Supply Imbalance May Last Until First Half of 2027

Apacer Technology stated that the three major DRAM manufacturers have shifted virtually all new capacity to AI-focused products such as HBM, server DDR5, and LPDDR5X, reducing supply for general DDR5, DDR4, and industrial applications. The company warned that module makers will face continued allocation declines and rising prices, with the supply-demand imbalance likely persisting at least through the first half of 2027. Module firms, including ADATA and Tench Technology, are aggressively building inventories to avoid shortages, while some PC and smartphone makers have cut or delayed purchases. DDR4 is seeing renewed interest due to cost benefits.

Effective: +43
Intensity: 80
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Long term

Industries29 Jul, 11:12negative

Ajinomoto ABF Film Price Hike of 30% Hits AI Chip Supply Chain; Over 50 Chinese Consumer Companies Enter Hard

Ajinomoto raised ABF film prices by 30% in the third quarter of 2026, pressuring the global AI chip supply chain. Since late 2025, more than 50 Chinese consumer companies have diversified into hard tech, with Allbirds' NewBird surging 582% after a pivot to computing power leasing. By-health took a 0.97% stake in a chip startup for RMB 50 million, while Zhong Shanshan invested RMB 500 million for a 10% stake in solid-state battery electrolytes. However, cross-industry high-tech M&A failure rates reached 57.2% in 2024, and traditional company diversification failure rates ranged from 70% to 75% from 2018 to 2025.

Effective: -42
Intensity: 70
Confidence: 85%
Horizon: Short term

Industries30 Jul, 18:29positive

China Internet and Software Revenue Grows Steadily in First Half of 2026, Profit Growth Diverges

In the first half of 2026, China's internet and software sectors posted steady revenue growth but diverging profit trends. Internet business revenue reached 1,067.5 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year, while profit surged 16.6% to 98.99 billion RMB. Software revenue rose 9.5% to 7,718.2 billion RMB, but profit growth slowed to 1.0% at 899.9 billion RMB. Software exports grew 11.4% to 33.79 billion USD. R&D spending in the internet sector increased 14.1% to 59.55 billion RMB.

Effective: +41
Intensity: 75
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Companies1

Companies26 Jul, 05:11positive

Samsung, Broadcom Sign Agreement to Expand Memory and Chip Manufacturing Cooperation

Samsung Electronics announced on Saturday a cooperation agreement with US chip designer Broadcom to expand collaboration in memory chips, contract manufacturing, and advanced packaging. Under the memorandum of understanding, Broadcom will use Samsung's sub-2-nanometer process for next-generation communication chips and jointly develop high-bandwidth memory. The five-year partnership aims to boost utilization of Samsung's advanced facilities and strengthen its foundry business against TSMC, as demand rises for custom AI accelerators.

Effective: +44
Intensity: 85
Confidence: 72%
Horizon: Medium term