Transport & Logistics · 15.3

Shipping & Ports

Quantified news impact based on deduplicated, quality-reviewed events in a single 60-day window.

Average net impact+19weighted per event

Average gross impact27absolute weighted average

Events20same period

Confidence76%model average

Raw intensity55before weighting

Previous period-7net impact

Gross change+285%

Diffusion speed0.3 / day

Concentration7%

Direction disagreement29%

Source independence96%14 sources

IMPACT TREND

60-day effective impact

Positive 15 · Negative 3 · Mixed 2

+410-41

4 Jun0 events

9 Jun0 events

14 Jun0 events

19 Jun0 events

24 Jun0 events

29 Jun0 events

4 Jul0 events

9 Jul0 events

14 Jul0 events

19 Jul0 events

24 Jul14 events

+41

29 Jul6 events

Current periodPrevious period

TIME HORIZON

Impact duration

Immediate2%12 cumulative effective impact

Short term38%200 cumulative effective impact

Medium term55%292 cumulative effective impact

Long term5%26 cumulative effective impact

CO-IMPACT

Related industries

EVENT EVIDENCE

Events ranked by effective impact

Page 2 of 2 · 20 events

Macro5

Macro27 Jul, 13:04negative

US launches 10%-12.5% tariffs on 60 trading partners, affecting 99.4% of imports; oil rebounds above $100 on

The United States on Friday imposed new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partners, including the EU, China, the UK and Canada, replacing an expiring temporary 10% duty. The move, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, cites forced labour: countries that have adopted or pledged to ban the practice face 10%, while others face 12.5%. The tariffs cover 99.4% of American imports. The action follows a Supreme Court ruling in February that struck down prior tariffs as unlawful. Separately, the military conflict between the US and Iran has entered its sixth month, pushing oil prices back above $100 a barrel, with global stock markets continuing to feel the impact of Middle East tensions.

Effective: -28
Intensity: 55
Confidence: 65%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro29 Jul, 10:44positive

Dongguan's Population Hits 10.8 Million, GDP Surpasses Foshan to Become Guangdong's Third-Largest City

In 2025, Dongguan's permanent population reached 10.80 million, with an increase of 229,600, ranking second nationally after Shenzhen. In the first half of 2026, Dongguan's 64 A-share listed companies had a combined market capitalisation of over RMB 1.4 trillion, up 76.25% from the end of 2025, the second-fastest growth among trillion-GDP cities after Wuhan (80.99%). Dongguan's GDP for the first half of 2026 reached RMB 642.7 billion, surpassing Foshan for the first time to become the third-largest city economy in Guangdong. The city's industrial output grew 6.9% year-on-year, with advanced manufacturing up 7.4% and high-tech manufacturing up 9.4%.

Effective: +23
Intensity: 50
Confidence: 70%
Horizon: Short term

Macro27 Jul, 19:14positive

New Western Land-Sea Corridor First-Half Trade Reaches 517.23 Billion Yuan, Up 13%

The New Western Land-Sea Corridor recorded a first-half trade value of 517.23 billion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase, marking the first time the half-year figure has exceeded 500 billion yuan. The corridor, with Chongqing as its operational center, operates under a '13+2' cooperation mechanism involving 12 western provinces, Hainan, Zhanjiang and Huaihua, using rail, sea and road routes to connect to global markets. Premier Li Qiang and Vice Premier He Lifeng made separate inspection trips to Guangxi and Sichuan in late April and late June respectively.

Effective: +23
Intensity: 55
Confidence: 75%
Horizon: Medium term

Macro28 Jul, 06:00negative

Ukrainian Drones Strike Russian Retailer Wildberries Warehouses Repeatedly; Putin Accuses West of Economic

Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Western countries of resorting to terrorism against Russia's economy and financial system, saying they cannot defeat Russia on the battlefield. Ukrainian drones have repeatedly attacked warehouses of Russian online retailer Wildberries, including near Saint Petersburg, and also struck a resort in the Zaporizhzhia region, killing 12 civilians. Russia and Ukraine have traded accusations of terrorism amid escalating cross-border strikes.

Effective: -12
Intensity: 40
Confidence: 50%
Horizon: Immediate

Macro27 Jul, 17:38mixed

China's July crude imports rebound to 7.8 million bpd, Saudi and UAE shipments surge

China's daily crude oil imports rebounded to about 7.8 million barrels in July from a more than 10-year low of 6.2 million barrels in November 2015. Saudi Arabia's shipments more than doubled, UAE's surged tenfold, and Russia's rose 10%. The rebound followed a temporary US-Iran ceasefire last month, but renewed fighting has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Before the full outbreak of the US-Iran conflict on February 28, China's total imports were 12.6 million barrels per day, including 1 million via pipeline.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 40
Confidence: 70%
Horizon: Short term

Industries2

Industries29 Jul, 12:49positive

Jiangsu Unveils AI+Transport Plan Targeting 2030 with 62 Use Cases

Jiangsu province on July 23 released its 'AI+Transport' implementation plan, aiming to build a high-quality development demonstration zone by 2030. The first batch of 62 application scenarios was announced. Jiangsu's highway network, carrying 7.2% of national traffic on 2.8% of mileage, targets 100 typical scenarios by 2027 and 20 vertical AI models. Transport investment totaled 1 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan and is planned to exceed 1 trillion yuan in the 15th Five-Year Plan, with 240 billion yuan designated for 2026.

Effective: +27
Intensity: 55
Confidence: 78%
Horizon: Medium term

Industries28 Jul, 18:50positive

Shanghai Issues Inland Waterway Plan: 280 km of Grade III Waterways and 35% Container Transshipment Ratio by

The Shanghai Municipal People's Government has issued an implementation plan for inland waterway shipping in the Yangtze River Delta, targeting 280 kilometers of Grade III and above waterways and a 35% container waterway transshipment ratio for domestic routes by 2030. The plan also aims to upgrade the river-sea direct channel for Shanghai Port, enhance green and smart shipping, and develop an integrated river-sea intermodal network.

Effective: +25
Intensity: 60
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Long term

Companies3

Companies28 Jul, 17:18positive

Ningbo Port Chairman Proposes 2026 Interim Dividend of at Least 30% of Distributable Profit

Ningbo Port, a major Chinese port operator, announced on July 28 that its chairman, Zhu Miao, has proposed that the company's 2026 interim profit distribution amount be no less than 30% of its distributable profit for the first half of 2026. The calculation will use the total share capital on the record date for the 2026 interim distribution plan.

Effective: +13
Intensity: 30
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Medium term

Companies29 Jul, 07:43positive

14 A-Shares in Equity Registration: 13 Pay Dividends, 1 Bonus Issue; Three Firms Propose Payouts

Fourteen A-shares underwent equity registration on July 29, with 13 distributing dividends and one issuing bonus shares. Dizhu Fashion, COSCO Shipping Specialized, and Huaxia Bank led dividend payouts at RMB 4.00, RMB 3.25, and RMB 3.20 per 10 shares, respectively. Chengzhi Shareholding offered a 4-for-10 bonus issue. Separately, Xinzhoubang, Qianyuan Power, and Huadian Power International proposed dividends of RMB 3.0, RMB 1.0, and RMB 0.9 per 10 shares.

Effective: +1
Intensity: 10
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Short term

Companies29 Jul, 17:50neutral

COSCO Shipping Development Orders 15 Bulk Carriers of 210,000 DWT for RMB 7.92 Billion

COSCO Shipping Development Co. , Ltd. has placed orders for 15 Newcastlemax bulk carriers of 210,000 deadweight tons each, with a total contract value of RMB 7.92 billion (excluding tax). The company's wholly owned subsidiary Hainan COSCO Shipping Development Shipping Co. commissioned Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co. to build 10 vessels for RMB 5.28 billion, and Nantong Xiangyu Marine Equipment Co. to build 5 vessels for RMB 2.64 billion. The ships will feature methanol- and ammonia-ready fuel designs.

Effective: 0
Intensity: 30
Confidence: 80%
Horizon: Long term