NEWS DESK

Macro news and economic policy

Material economic data, monetary and fiscal policy, regulation and cross-border macro developments.

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OtherImportance 75

Dongguan's Population Hits 10.8 Million, GDP Surpasses Foshan to Become Guangdong's Third-Largest City

In 2025, Dongguan's permanent population reached 10.80 million, with an increase of 229,600, ranking second nationally after Shenzhen. In the first half of 2026, Dongguan's 64 A-share listed companies had a combined market capitalisation of over RMB 1.4 trillion, up 76.25% from the end of 2025, the second-fastest growth among trillion-GDP cities after Wuhan (80.99%). Dongguan's GDP for the first half of 2026 reached RMB 642.7 billion, surpassing Foshan for the first time to become the third-largest city economy in Guangdong. The city's industrial output grew 6.9% year-on-year, with advanced manufacturing up 7.4% and high-tech manufacturing up 9.4%.

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OtherImportance 60

Hefei's H1 2026 GDP Reaches 707.3 Billion Yuan, Up 6.8% Year-on-Year

Hefei's economy in the first six months of 2026 expanded 6.8% year-on-year to 707.3 billion yuan, driven by growth across all three sectors. The primary sector grew 2.2% to 11.88 billion yuan, the secondary sector rose 10.3% to 255.24 billion yuan, and the tertiary sector increased 5.0% to 440.18 billion yuan. The secondary sector posted the strongest growth.

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OtherImportance 92

NOAA Predicts 81% Chance of Strong El Niño in 2026, May Affect Fed Rate Cuts

The U. S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts an 81% probability of a strong El Niño event in 2026, threatening to disrupt global food and energy markets at a time when an Iran-related oil supply shock is already pushing up inflation. New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh recently told Congress the central bank has “zero tolerance” for persistent price pressures, distinguishing them from one-off supply-driven increases. The double blow of higher food and fuel costs could complicate the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory.

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OtherImportance 65

Peking University Math School Denies Rumors About Fields Medalist; 2026 Logistics Value Tops RMB 180 Trillion

The School of Mathematical Sciences at Peking University has denied false rumors that recently appeared online regarding the academic experience of Fields Medal winner Wang Hong at the university. The school said the rumors were unsubstantiated. Separately, official data showed that China's total social logistics value for the first half of 2026 exceeded RMB 180 trillion.

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OtherImportance 85

China's NDRC Unveils Three Measures to Stabilize Investment, Including 800 Billion Yuan Policy Tools

National Development and Reform Commission Deputy Director Yang Te announced three measures to halt the decline in investment and optimize its structure. The steps include accelerating the deployment of 800 billion yuan in new policy-based financial tools, pushing forward major projects such as the 'six networks' and five key infrastructure areas, and boosting private investment through fiscal-financial coordination and guarantees. The aim is to support sustained economic recovery and improvement.

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OtherImportance 70

Japan Cross-Party Council Agrees on Food Tax Cut to 1% with Cash Handout for Low-Income

Japan's cross-party National Council on Social Security reached a mid-term summary on food consumption tax reduction, explicitly including the ruling party's plan to cut the rate to 1% from April 2027 for two years. The plan also provides 600 billion yen annually to low- and middle-income individuals, achieving an effective zero rate. The summary mentions the opposition's priority on cash handouts. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will make the final decision.

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OtherImportance 70

China H1 2026 Logistics Costs at RMB 9.6 Trillion, Up 4.6%, Saving RMB 70 Billion

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data for the first half of 2026, showing total social logistics costs of RMB 9.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The ratio of total costs to GDP stood at 13.9%, down 0.1 percentage point from both the first quarter of 2026 and the same period in 2025. Based on H1 2026 GDP, total logistics cost savings reached nearly RMB 70 billion.

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OtherImportance 75

H1 Social Logistics Total Reaches RMB181.1 Trillion, Up 5.1% YoY, Driven by Structural Optimization and New

China's social logistics total value reached RMB181.1 trillion in the first half of 2025, up 5.1% year-on-year, outpacing GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points. Growth was 6.2% in the first quarter and 4.4% in the second quarter. Industrial goods logistics rose 5.4%, with high-tech manufacturing up 13.3% and digital products up 12.3%. Imports grew 2.2%, while semiconductor equipment imports surged 20.4%. Logistics sector revenue totaled RMB7.2 trillion, up 4.7%.

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OtherImportance 70

Wuhu Unveils 15th Five-Year Targets: Auto Industry to Top 1 Trillion Yuan, 2025 GDP at 540.3 Billion

Wuhu, Anhui, has set its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) goals, aiming for its auto industry to exceed RMB 1 trillion in scale. The city reported 2025 GDP of RMB 540.3 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 6.8% over the past five years. Auto output reached 1.8 million vehicles in 2025, and exports surged 118.3% in the first half of 2026 to 763,000 units. The plan targets further economic upgrades and a stronger national ranking.

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U.S. equitiesImportance 85

Traders Hedge Against Fed Rate Hike Risk at Record Levels Ahead of July Decision

Traders have hedged against the risk of an unexpected Federal Reserve rate hike at record levels ahead of the July policy decision. Swap market pricing indicates about a one-third probability of a 25-basis-point increase. CME FedWatch data shows a 69.5% chance of no change and a 30.5% chance of a 25bp hike. For the September meeting, probabilities stand at 23.4% for no change, 56.4% for a cumulative 25bp hike, and 20.2% for a cumulative 50bp hike. Open interest in August federal funds futures hit a record 967,136 contracts.

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OtherImportance 75

FIFA Plans $20 Billion Subsidiary to Run World Cup, Raise $4.2 Billion

FIFA announced plans to create a subsidiary valued at $20 billion to operate the World Cup and other events, aiming to raise $4.2 billion and distribute $20 million to each of its 211 member associations. The proposal, which requires approval from member associations and the FIFA Council, is part of a structural modernization effort that has been under consideration since 2000. UEFA strongly criticized the plan, saying football's governance should not be an investment target.

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OtherImportance 90

China Fines Trip.com RMB5.179 Billion in First ‘Three-in-One’ Antitrust Case

The State Administration for Market Regulation imposed a combined penalty of RMB5.179 billion on Trip. com Group, ordering it to cease illegal practices, confiscating illegal gains, and levying a fine—the first such three-in-one sanction in platform-economy antitrust enforcement. The fine ratio of 7.5% surpassed the 4% on Alibaba and 3% on Meituan. The case exposed coercive “pick-one-of-two” exclusivity demands, manipulation of pricing tools to enforce lowest prices, and other anti-competitive conduct. Trip. com announced 19 corrective measures, including scrapping exclusivity clauses, in a ruling set to guide future platform competition rules.

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OtherImportance 78

China's First-Half 2026 Imports Exceed 10 Trillion Yuan, Up 22.1%; Imports from Africa Up 19.6%

China's first-half 2026 imports exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time, rising 22.1% year-on-year, 8.7 percentage points faster than exports. Imports from Latin America grew 16.2%, from Africa 19.6%, and from Belt and Road countries 16.3%. Trade with ASEAN reached 4.34 trillion yuan, up 18.2%, with intermediate goods accounting for nearly two-thirds. China has granted zero-tariff treatment on 100% of tariff lines to least developed countries, and its overall tariff level fell to 7.3% by 2025. In May 2026, zero tariffs for 53 African countries boosted African imports 23.5% in two months.

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OtherImportance 70

China's Rural Financial Services Achieve Near-Universal Coverage; Agricultural Loans Exceed RMB 53 Trillion in

China's rural financial system has achieved near-universal basic coverage, with outstanding agricultural loans in domestic and foreign currencies exceeding RMB 53 trillion in 2025. However, structural supply-demand imbalances, high operational costs, and risk management pressures persist. Digital credit construction, driven by technology and institutional innovation, is emerging as a critical solution to these challenges, aiming to transform rural inclusive finance from broad coverage to high-quality development.

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A-sharesImportance 88

New Infrastructure Hits RMB2.98 Trillion in H1 2026; Intelligent Computing Up 177%, 5G Stations Top 5.05

China’s new infrastructure drive maintained steady momentum in the first half of 2026, with the core industry scale reaching RMB2.98 trillion. Intelligent computing power surged 177% to 2,185 EFLOPS, while 5G base stations topped 5.05 million and the 5G-A network covered 330 cities. Technology-oriented loans rose sharply, and credit tilted toward the sector. Listed new infrastructure companies’ combined net profit jumped over 59%, with computing and data infrastructure profits more than doubling. The government advanced low-orbit satellite constellation deployment, drone airspace mapping, and granted 6 GHz spectrum for 6G trials.

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A-sharesImportance 70

Over 3,500 Firms Stripped of High-Tech Status Since 2026, Involving 18 Listed Companies

Since the start of 2026, more than 3,500 companies nationwide have lost their high-tech enterprise status, affecting 18 listed firms or their subsidiaries. Four listed entities—Langzi Co. , Ltd. , Sai Microelectronics, Yicheng New Energy, and Junda Co. —were directly disqualified. Separately, a subsidiary of Yunnan Copper Industry Co. paid RMB 512 million in back taxes and penalties. The surge in disqualifications is attributed to non-compliance with core indicators, voluntary withdrawals, and violations of safety, quality, or environmental regulations.

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OtherImportance 65

Vanke, Yuexiu, Country Garden Disavow Property Fee Discount Services as Police Identify Money Laundering

Online platforms including Xianyu, Xiaohongshu and Taobao are offering discounted property management fee payment services, with discounts of up to 26 percent. Police have identified these services as a front for money laundering, using illicit funds from telecom fraud and online gambling. Property developers Vanke, Yuexiu and Country Garden have stated they never authorized any such discounts. In one case, a homeowner in Changsha who used a 25 percent discount service had the funds frozen after police flagged the transaction as fraudulent, and it took a month to recover the money. Homeowners risk having their accounts frozen and being billed again by the property management.

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OtherImportance 40

12 FTZ Offshore Bonds Issued Since Restart, Totaling RMB 4.3 Billion

Since the restart in June 2025, 12 FTZ offshore bonds totaling about RMB 4.3 billion have been issued by overseas branches of Chinese financial institutions, with all issuers and investors offshore. The bonds are mainly RMB-denominated with rates between 1.6% and 1.9%, well below major international currencies. The market was halted earlier due to domestic focus but restarted under the 'both ends outside' principle. Future expansion targets 'going out' and Belt and Road enterprises.

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OtherImportance 75

Japan Sets Up Emergency Headquarters for Kumamoto's Intensity 7 Quake, Orders Rescue, Deploys 3,600 SDF

The Japanese government established an emergency disaster response headquarters on the evening of July 28 after a magnitude-7 earthquake struck Kumamoto Prefecture. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who heads the unit, ordered full rescue efforts under a 'human life first' policy. In response to the governor's request, about 3,600 Self-Defense Forces personnel have been deployed, with police, fire, coast guard, and SDF units conducting ongoing rescue operations.

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OtherImportance 60

Explosion at Aeon Mall in Kumamoto Injures Four, Causes Wall Collapse; Rescue Underway

An explosion at the Aeon Mall in Kumamoto, Japan, sent four people to the hospital with minor injuries, all conscious. About 200 people evacuated before the blast, which caused severe damage to the outer wall. Rescue operations are ongoing as an unknown number remain trapped inside. Reports indicate smoke, a loud bang, and upper floor collapse.

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OtherImportance 85

China's H1 2026 GDP up 4.7%, special bonds 2.07 trillion yuan; H2 fiscal policy to target tech and welfare

China's GDP grew 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with special bond issuance reaching RMB 2.07 trillion, about 47% of the annual quota. In the second half, fiscal policy will strengthen increments and prioritize spending on technological innovation and social welfare. A new RMB 800 billion policy financial instrument is expected to leverage RMB 3.2 trillion to RMB 4 trillion in total investment, given the 20% to 25% minimum capital adequacy ratio for infrastructure projects, directly contributing 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points to 2026 growth.

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OtherImportance 75

China's New Yuan Loans Reach RMB 10.72 Trillion in First Half of 2026

China's new yuan loans totaled RMB 10.72 trillion in the first half of 2026, with corporate and institution loan balances rising 8.2% year-on-year to RMB 197.47 trillion, while real estate loan balances fell 4.9% to RMB 50.74 trillion, according to the central bank's Q2 report.

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OtherImportance 50

Six U.S. House Members Bought SpaceX Stock After IPO; House Passes Bill on Member Trading

After SpaceX's IPO on June 12, 2026, six U. S. House members or their immediate family purchased between $83,000 and $245,000 of the company's stock within six days. Five of these lawmakers serve on committees that oversee SpaceX's business areas, including defense, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence. The House separately passed a bill on July 22 by 232-198 to prohibit members from buying new individual stocks. No evidence of insider trading was found. SpaceX's stock has since fallen 16% from its IPO price and 44% from its peak.

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OtherImportance 72

China's Elderly Population Hits 323 Million, Home Services Market 1.28 Trillion RMB, Caregiver Shortfall 5.5

By the end of 2025, China's population aged 60 and above reached 323 million, or 23.0% of the total, with 223.65 million aged 65 and above (15.9%). Disabled and semi-disabled elderly exceeded 45 million, while only 500,000 hold professional caregiver certifications, creating a shortfall of 5.5 million. The home services market reached 1.28 trillion RMB, employing over 30 million workers.

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OtherImportance 60

Amazon Claims Top Spot in Fortune Global 500, Ending Walmart's 12-Year Reign

Amazon became the world's largest company in the Fortune Global 500 for the first time, ending Walmart's 12-year streak at the top. Walmart dropped to second place, while China's State Grid Corporation of China remained third. UnitedHealth Group and Saudi Aramco took the fourth and fifth positions, respectively.

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OtherImportance 60

China June Lottery Sales Jump 39.5% to 75.98 Billion Yuan as World Cup Boosts Sports Betting

China's total lottery sales in June reached RMB 75.98 billion, up 39.5% year-on-year, driven by a 62.9% surge in sports lottery sales to RMB 59.22 billion as the World Cup boosted competitive-type betting. Welfare lottery sales fell 7.6% to RMB 16.76 billion. For the first half of the year, total lottery sales rose 2.8% to RMB 326.87 billion, with sports lottery up 7.6% and welfare lottery down 6.6%.

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OtherImportance 60

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Issues Q2 2026 Macro-Financial Report, Highlights Challenges and Investment

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Finance and Banking released its Q2 2026 China Macro-Financial Analysis Report on July 27, stating that the economy faces challenges including slow aggregate demand recovery, structural divergence, real estate adjustment, and external financial volatility. The report identifies deep-seated causes such as the transition between old and new growth drivers, profit compression for small firms, and income distribution imbalances. It recommends focusing investment on major national projects and urban renewal.

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OtherImportance 60

Beijing Releases Hepatitis Prevention Action Plan, Targeting 95% Full Vaccination Coverage for Children by

Beijing has released a hepatitis prevention action plan for 2026-2030, setting targets for 2030. These include 95% full vaccination coverage for children for hepatitis A and B, 90% timely first-dose hepatitis B vaccination for newborns, a mother-to-child transmission rate below 1%, an acute hepatitis B incidence rate no higher than 1 per 100,000, and a diagnosis rate for chronic hepatitis B patients of at least 80%.

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U.S. equitiesImportance 78

7.1-Magnitude Earthquake in Kumamoto Raises Risk to Semiconductor Supply Chain

A 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Japan's Kumamoto Prefecture on July 28, 2026, killing at least 13 people and injuring dozens. The quake disrupted power to over 48,000 households, halted transport, and forced evacuations at semiconductor plants including TSMC and Sony. The region, a key semiconductor hub, faces heightened supply chain risk. Japan's government activated emergency response, while Taiwan donated 5 million New Taiwan dollars for relief.